Navel Orange Forecast Up 19 Percent from Last Year

Brian German Citrus, Fruits & Vegetables

The Navel orange forecast from the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) is up 19 percent from last year. The data is based on the 2022-23 Navel Orange Objective Measurement Survey, conducted in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) initial forecast is 76 million cartons. The vast majority of production, 73 million cartons, are estimated to come from the Central Valley.

Navel Orange Forecast

The forecast incorporates conventional, organic, and specialty varieties such as Cara Cara and Blood orange varieties. According to survey data, fruit set per tree is up 47 percent from last year. USDA indicated a fruit set per tree of 351, above the five-year average of 315. As of September 1, the average diameter was 2.106 inches. The measurement is below the five-year average of 2.194 inches. Fruit set of Cara Cara varieties was measured as 307 per tree, with a diameter of 2.147 inches.

The Navel orange forecast survey was conducted between June 17 and September 1. A total of 785 groves were randomly selected, with 717 of them being used in the survey. Eight of the groves were in Madera County, 109 were in Fresno County, 174 were in Kern County, and 425 were in Tulare County.


NASS’s Pacific Regional Field Office also recently conducted the third Mandarin Objective Measurement Survey. The results released on September 12 show an average fruit set of 596 per tree and an average fruit size of 1.344 inches in diameter. Average fruit set had been measured at 290 in 2021 and 945 in 2020. Nearly 300 samples were taken of Tango and W. Murcott Afourer Mandarin varieties. The average fruit size had previously been measured at 1.363 inches in diameter. That figure was 1.488 inches in diameter in 2020.

About the Author

Brian German

Facebook Twitter

Ag News Director, AgNet West