In a positive turn for California’s citrus industry, the initial forecast for the 2023–24 navel orange season is 74 million cartons. That marks a one percent increase from the previous year. The figures from the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) were derived from comprehensive data gathered during the 2023–24 navel orange objective measurement survey conducted between June 19 and September 1, 2023. Notably, the survey encompassed conventional, organic, and specialty navel oranges, embracing varieties such as Cara Cara and Blood oranges.
The statistical models employed for the forecast factored in essential elements like estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per box. Survey results indicate a fruit set per tree at 335, experiencing a modest five percent decrease from the previous year. On a positive note, the average diameter of navel oranges as of September 1 showed a three percent increase, measuring 2.177 inches. With an estimated bearing acreage of 110,000 acres, the yield stands at an impressive 673 cartons per acre.
Navel orange bearing acreage has been trending down over the past 15 years, with a high point of 141,000 acres in 2008. Trees per acres have been increasing over the same period. The past three seasons have experienced smaller final utilized production numbers from initial forecasts.
Specifically, the forecast for Cara Cara variety production stands at seven million cartons. Surveyed data revealed a fruit set per tree of 273, a decline of 11 percent from the previous year but still two percent above the five-year average. The average diameter for Cara Cara oranges as of September 1 was 2.188 inches, slightly surpassing the five-year average.
The survey, conducted across 785 randomly selected navel orange groves, emphasized proportional representation across counties and varieties. Of these, 741 groves were utilized, with notable concentrations in Fresno, Tulare, and Kern counties.
Brian German
Ag News Director / AgNet West