This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced feed and residual use, lower stocks, and higher prices. Corn production is forecast at 15.093 billion bushels, down 61 million from last month. Corn supplies for 2016/17 are lowered from last month but are still forecast at a record 16.859 billion bushels, as a smaller crop more than offsets a small increase in beginning stocks due to a reduction in 2015/16 exports. Feed and residual use for is lowered 25 million bushels with a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Exports are unchanged from last month, reflecting the competitiveness of U.S. corn on the world market. Corn ending stocks are down from last month but, if realized, would still be the highest since 1987/88.
Soybean production is projected at a record 4,201 million bushels, up 141 million due to a higher yield forecast. Soybean supplies are raised with higher production more than offsetting lower beginning stocks. Despite higher crush and exports, 2016/17 soybean ending stocks are projected at 365 million bushels, up 35 million from last month due to higher supplies. Changes for 2015/16 include higher exports and lower ending stocks. Exports are increased 60 million to a record 1,940 million bushels based on official trade through July and indications from record high August export inspections. Ending stocks are projected at 195 million bushels, down 60 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.30 to $9.80 per bushel, down 5 cents on both ends of the range.
The U.S. 2016/17 wheat supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last month. The marketing year average price received by producers is lowered $0.10 per bushel at the midpoint to a range of $3.30 to $3.90. The reduction is due to lower than expected prices to date. Global wheat supplies for 2016/17 are raised 0.4 million tons on a 1.4-million-ton production increase that is partially offset by decreased beginning stocks. Global exports are raised 2.1 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Australia and a 0.5-million-ton increase for Kazakhstan, both on larger crops. Export gains are partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton decrease in EU exports on the continued decline in supplies. Total global use is up 4.2 million tons with increases in both food and feed use. With total use rising faster than supplies, world ending stocks are lowered 3.8 million tons but remain record large.
U.S. 2016/17 all rice supplies are reduced 0.6 million hundredweight due to a lower production forecast that is mostly offset by increased beginning stocks. Imports are also lowered 0.5 million hundredweight. All rice production is lowered 7.2 million tons on both lower area and yield. The production estimate reflects excessive rain and flooding that has in several areas of the Southern production region. The long-grain crop is lowered 4.8 million hundredweight to 177.9 million, but is 44.9 million hundredweight above the previous year and the largest crop since the 2010/11 record. Medium- and short-grain production is lowered 2.3 million hundredweight to 59.3 million. Total rice exports are unchanged, but domestic and residual use is lowered 5.0 million hundredweight to 133.0. Ending stocks are raised 4.4 million hundredweight.
Sugar production for the fiscal year 2016/17 is increased 63,904 short tons, raw value to 9.272 million resulting from new sugar crop forecasts made by NASS in the September Crop Production report. Partially offsetting is a beet sugar production decline of 31,632 STRV based on a lower sugar per acre implied by NASS’s sugarbeet yield forecast decrease of 0.1 tons/acre to 31.3 and an area harvested reduction of 3,000 acres. Imports for 2016/17 are reduced by 366,000 to 2.652 million. All of the reduction is attributable to a decrease in imports from Mexico for 2016/17. Total use for 2016/17 is unchanged from last month. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 1.656 million, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent.
Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy:
The forecast for total red meat and poultry production for 2016 is reduced from last month as beef, pork, and broiler production forecasts are lowered. Turkey production is raised. Beef production is forecast lower on lower expected third quarter steer and heifer slaughter. Pork production for 2016 is lowered on expectations of slightly lower carcass weights for the third quarter. The milk production forecast for 2016 is raised from last month as the cow inventory appears to have steadied in the face of expected improvements in returns. The production forecast for 2017 is raised to reflect slightly more rapid growth in milk per cow.
From the National Association of Farm Broadcasting news service.