The March 2014-15 Valencia orange forecast is 20 million cartons. This forecast was based on the results of the 2014-15 Valencia Orange Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was conducted from January 16 to February 14, 2015. Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per carton were used in the statistical models estimating production.
The season has been dry in many areas and measurements are indicating an average fruit size, but the fruit set has been negatively impacted. Survey data indicated an average fruit set per tree of 545, well below the five-year average of 639 and the lowest set since the 2008-09 season. The average March 1 diameter was 2.571 inches, slightly above the five-year average of 2.562.
USDA/NASS March Citrus Ctrop Forecast
2014-15 California Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Report (.pdf)
Citrus March Forecast Maturity Test Results and Fruit Size (.pdf)
The next USDA/NASS Citrus Crop Forecast will be Thursday, April 9, 2015 anmd will be carried “Live” right here on AgNet West at 9:00 a.m..