USDA Sharply Revises Farm Income Forecasts

Dan General, Industry News Release

Dollar banknotes and wheat grains on wooden background. Agricultural income concept
The Department of Agriculture this week changed its forecast for 2016 net cash farm income to $94.1 billion, up from its initial projection of $90.9 billion in February. While USDA increased the estimate, net cash farm income remains 13.3 percent lower compared to 2015. The net farm income forecast for 2016 in February was revised up to $71.5 billion from $54.8 billion but still down 11.5 percent from last year. Pro Farmer reports that for the second year in a row, USDA noted production expenses were down in 2016. Net farm income for 2015 was revised up significantly to $80.7 billion, an increase of 43 percent from the numbers released in February. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said the forecast highlights the ability of farmers to “plan ahead and make sharp business decisions in a challenging market.”

From the National Association of Farm Broadcasting news service.

From: USDA Economic Research Service

Farm Business* Net Cash Farm Income Forecast Down for Second Consecutive Year in 2016

Average net cash farm income (NCFI) is forecast at $102,200 for farm businesses* in 2016, down 4.2 percent from 2015, the lowest level since 2011 in both nominal and real terms. Net cash farm income for the farm sector, which includes all farms, is forecast down over 13 percent.

NCFI represents the amount of cash available to pay down debt, pay taxes, cover family living expenses, and make new investments. It is not a comprehensive measure of profitability, however, since it does not account for noncash income changes, including adjustments in farm inventory, accounts payable, accounts receivable, and capital consumption.

The 4.2 percent decline expected in 2016 follows a double-digit decline in 2015 after average NCFI reached an historic high of $121,600 in 2014. Average net cash farm income is generally expected to be lower in 2016 for farm businesses specializing in livestock production. For farm businesses specializing in crop production, average NFCI is forecast higher or lower based on the specific crop grown.

As with the farm sector as a whole, farm businesses are expected to incur lower expenses in 2016, particularly for livestock/poultry purchases, fuel, and fertilizer. Cash expenses for U.S. farm businesses are forecast down about 3 percent in 2016.

Net Cash Farm Income Higher for Farm Businesses Specializing** in Wheat, Cotton, and Rice; Flat or Declining for Other Specializations in 2016

Dollar banknotes and rice grains on wooden background. Agricultural income conceptAfter sharp declines in 2015, average net cash farm income for most farm businesses specializing in crop production is expected to remain flat or decline. Farm businesses specializing in mixed grains (-0.9 percent), corn (-0.1 percent), soybeans and peanuts (-1.0 percent), and other field crops (2.8 percent) are expected to perform moderately well, while NCFI for specialty crop farm businesses (fruits, vegetables, and nursery/greenhouse) is forecast to decrease 4.2 percent in 2016 (following an 11.8-percent gain in 2015). Wheat, cotton, and rice farm businesses are expected to see double-digit increases in average net cash incomes in 2016 due to lower cash expenses—primarily fertilizer and fuel—offsetting declines in cash receipts.

Average NCFI for most farm businesses specializing in livestock production are forecast to fall in 2016, with dairy farms expected to suffer the largest declines in absolute and percentage terms. After record high milk prices in 2014, this would be the second consecutive year with significant declines in NCFI for dairy farms. For farm businesses specializing in hogs, lower receipts are expected to drive average NCFI 8 percent lower in 2016 (to $254,700), despite lower expenses for livestock purchases. For poultry and egg farm businesses, lower prices—particularly for eggs—are expected to reduce overall cash receipts and drive the average NCFI forecast down 14 percent to $111,400 in 2016. Cattle/calf farm businesses are also expected to have lower NCFI in 2016, with price declines expected to lower cash receipts and more than offset reduced spending on livestock inventory purchases.

Average Net Cash Farm Income for Farm Businesses Lower Across Most Regions in 2016

Regional performance varies considerably due to the strong geographic concentration of certain production specialties. Of the nine resource regions (see ERS resource regions), seven are expected to show declines in NCFI in 2016, with only the Mississippi Portal and Prairie Gateway regions forecast to have higher NCFI.

  • Farm businesses in the Basin and Range are forecast to suffer a 10-percent decrease in average NCFI (the largest percentage decline across regions), as lower cash receipts for cattle weigh heavily on the region. For farm businesses in the Prairie Gateway, higher expected government payments and lower expenses are offset by lower cattle/calf cash receipts, resulting in an increase in average NCFI of less than 1 percent.
  • In the Northern Great Plains, falling NCFI for the region’s cattle and calf businesses contributes to an expected 4-percent decrease in average NCFI.
  • Due to a favorable specialization in cotton and rice, the Mississippi Portal is expected to see an increase in average NCFI of 2 percent in 2016.
  • Heartland farm businesses—with expected declines in cattle, poultry/egg, and corn receipts—are forecast to have an average NCFI of $116,400 in 2016, down about 4 percent from 2015.
  • Farm businesses in the Eastern Uplands are expected to benefit from lower fertilizer and livestock purchase expenses, but not enough to offset expected declines in cash receipts, leading average NCFI 7 percent lower in 2016. For the Southern Seaboard, average NCFI in 2016 is expected to be within $400 (down 0.6 percent) of the 2015 value of $65,600
  • Dairy’s forecast performance for 2016 is expected to affect many regions, with a forecast 8-percent decrease in average NCFI for the Northern Crescent and a 6-percent decline for the Fruitful Rim. Fruitful Rim NCFI was also reduced by the forecast for farm businesses growing specialty crops.

farmbusinessresourceregion2016faugust-farm income*Farm businesses are defined as operations with gross cash farm income of over $350,000 (labeled “commercial”) or smaller operations where farming is reported as the operator’s primary occupation (labeled “intermediate”).Approximately 10 percent of U.S. farms are commercial and 31 percent are intermediate. “Residence farms” comprise the remaining 59 percent of operations. These are small farms operated by those whose primary occupation is something other than farming.

**Commodity specialization is determined by a farm business having at least 50 percent of the value of production from a particular commodity. Farm businesses often produce multiple commodities, so average net cash income statistics should not be interpreted as related solely to the commodity highlighted as the commodity specialization.

Last updated by USDA/ERS: Tuesday, August 30, 2016