Red meat exports are showing stronger results than anticipated going into 2024, according to Dan Halstrom, CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Halstrom says his organization had originally expected a noticeable dip in business this year.
“We estimated that business would probably be down, and we threw out ten percent a year ago,” Halstrom explains. “The reality is that business is steady to down one percent on volume, but it’s up five percent, the second highest ever, on value. So, in that regard, we underestimated what would happen this year in a good way.”
Despite concerns about drought and herd reductions, there is renewed interest in expanding beef production. This shift comes from questions Halstrom is hearing from producers and industry observers.
“In past times when we’ve had droughts, and we have the down cycle, the question we always used to get was, ‘Well, when’s the price going to go down?’” he says. “What we’re getting now is not that question so much, but the question is, ‘When will we see more heifers retained? When will we see the production cycle increase?’”
A key factor driving demand for U.S. beef is the purchasing power of countries with developing economies. Halstrom points to Guatemala and Mexico as examples of growing markets willing to pay for high-quality cuts.
“The spending power in places like Guatemala, places like Mexico, it’s amazing to see what’s happening,” Halstrom says. “I use the example that we hit a choice cut-out of close to $330 here earlier this year, and you know what? They kept buying. I think that’s the message. They’re paying for our quality. We have some of the best, highest-quality product in the world.”
Looking ahead, many in the industry are watching for signs of herd expansion, such as retaining more heifers. While it remains to be seen when production will begin to climb, the current export numbers suggest a strong global appetite for U.S. red meat.