The AgNet News Hour featured an in-depth conversation with veteran cherry marketer Mike Jameson of Morada Produce, outlining a much-improved outlook for California’s 2026 cherry crop after a challenging 2025 season.
Last year proved difficult for growers, with total production dropping sharply to just 4.9 million cartons statewide. Jameson said that limited supply created significant challenges for meeting both domestic and international demand.
“When you get a crop that is that far off… it makes it extremely difficult to service the world with cherries,” he explained.
This year, however, conditions are trending more favorably. While not perfect across all regions, the statewide crop is expected to rebound significantly, with early estimates ranging between 8 and 8.5 million cartons.
“It’s a much better crop than we saw last year,” Jameson said.
Weather remains the biggest variable in cherry production. Unlike many commodities, cherries are highly sensitive to both winter chill hours and spring conditions. Consistent cold weather is essential for proper dormancy, while excessive heat or rain during bloom can impact fruit set.
“You need to have a certain amount of chill units during the winter,” Jameson explained. “The tree needs that rest to produce a strong crop.”
Regional differences are also playing a major role this season. Areas like the Westside—including Patterson, Gustine, and surrounding regions—are showing strong production, while other districts, including parts of Bakersfield and Hollister, are more variable.
“It is the best crop in California this year,” Jameson said of the Westside region.
Rainfall timing is another critical factor. While early-season rain typically has minimal impact, precipitation during key development stages can cause serious damage, including fruit cracking and loss of marketability.
“If cherries are at the wrong stage, they’ll absorb that water and split,” Jameson noted.
Beyond weather, growers are also facing rising production costs. Labor remains a major expense, as cherries are still primarily hand-harvested. At the same time, increases in fuel, fertilizer, and freight are adding pressure throughout the supply chain.
“A truck across the country is probably double what it was a year ago,” Jameson said.
Despite these challenges, demand for California cherries remains strong. Roughly 80 percent of the crop is sold domestically, with the remaining volume exported to key markets including Canada, Korea, Japan, and Mexico.
Cherries continue to stand out as one of the last truly seasonal items in the produce aisle, giving growers a unique window to capitalize on strong consumer demand.
“Cherries are still one of the last remaining seasonal crops,” Jameson said.
As harvest approaches, growers and marketers will continue closely monitoring conditions across the state. While uncertainty remains, the overall outlook points to a stronger and more stable season compared to last year.
Listen to the full interview below or on your favorite podcast app.
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