Almond Update: Production Trends Could Bring Equilibrium to The Market

Brian German Almond Update, Almonds, News from our Sponsors

Several almond production trends were highlighted during last month’s Almond Conference in Sacramento. Slowing increases in bearing acreage over the past several years was highlighted by various reports. More detailed information showed a slight decrease in the amount of total almond acreage. Manager of Marketing Order Services at the Almond Board of California, Bryce Spycher said they are monitoring that along with yield averages.

Production Trends

“This year if the 2.6 billion pounds that NASS estimated back in July is to be realized, that would equate to about 1,900 pounds per acre average,” Spycher explained. “So, certainly, below two years ago, and even below the 15-year average of 2,200 pounds per acre.”

Multiple strong years of production built up an abundance of supply that was then met with overwhelming logistical challenges. Shipping delays and an overall tumultuous supply chain that came about as a result of COVID took its toll on demand. However, despite those obstacles, the almond supply has still been moving at a rate to help put demand back in balance.

“The 2020-21 crop year was remarkable not only on the receipt side but also on the shipment side. The industry shipped just under 2.9 billion pounds that year. This last year in the 2021-22 marketing year, it was slightly above 2.6. I think 2.633 [billion pounds], which is down from the year previous,” said Spycher. “If you look historically that’s the second-largest shipping year in our industry’s history and actually, by a fairly sizable margin, over 200 million pounds more than the previous second-largest shipping year.”

Much of the information that was presented during the Almond Conference has been made available online. Many presentations highlighted a spirit of optimism that production trends will continue to move in a positive direction overall. “As the logistic situation and supply chain things start to more find equilibrium there as well, we start to see pounds being able to move more freely,” said Spycher.

Listen to Spycher’s interview below.

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Brian German

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Ag News Director, AgNet West