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Agricultural Exports Projected to Grow Over Next 10 Years

Brian German Agri-Business, Trade

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting strong growth in U.S. agricultural exports over the coming decade. Information from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) showed a projected increase of 12 percent in fiscal year 2021 alone. ERS expects export values to reach more than $150 billion, which would approach the record level set in 2014. As economies recover from complications related to COVID-19, American agricultural exports are projected to grow nearly two percent annually.

Agricultural Exports

Increasing export values for 2021 are supported by commodities such as meat products, cotton, soybeans, and wheat. In 2020, high-value products such as animal products comprised 69 percent of agricultural exports. High-value exports are projected to outpace bulk commodities after dropping slightly in 2021 to 64 percent. Much of the forecast is dependent upon economic rebounds in markets such as Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The report also highlights other important projections aside from agricultural exports.

The Agricultural Production to 2030 report is also projecting the value of fruit, tree nuts, vegetables, and pulse crops to increase significantly. Over the coming years, the combined value of those commodities is expected to reach $65.1 billion. By comparison, the value in 2020 was $51.4 billion. Along with agricultural exports, overall production is also expected to increase. Nearly 190 billion pounds of production is expected by 2030. Vegetable and pulse crops are expected to lead the way in terms of output as well as value.

Nearly 27 percent of all output is expected to come from fruit crops. Fruits are also projected to account for 38 percent of the overall value. While tree nuts will make up 4.5 percent of output, they will make up 21 percent of the total value. Vegetables and pulses are expected to comprise 68.5 percent of all output and 41 percent of value. While U.S. agricultural production and value are expected to increase, so too are agricultural imports. USDA expects agricultural imports to grow to more than $174 billion in 2030.

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Brian German

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Ag News Director, AgNet West