The August World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates will include the first USDA yield estimates of the season. The August report has historically pushed the markets up or down significantly. In January, USDA predicted the corn yield at just under 171 billion bushels. Farm Journal’s AgWeb.com says most analysts agree that Thursday’s estimate will likely come in well under the USDA baseline. Pro Farmer’s Brian Grete says corn yield will likely be in the mid-160 range. The Gulke Group’s Jerry Gulke says the likely corn yield estimate will be near the Informa Economic’s estimate of 166.
Gulke also doesn’t expect the soybean yield estimates to come in lower than expectations, saying, “I’d be surprised if USDA lowered the soybean yield more than a bushel.” USDA will also release the supply and demand numbers on Thursday and it’s important that the demand side stays high to keep markets afloat. “What we don’t want to see is them lower both corn yield and corn demand,” Gulke added. “If they lower the demand side such that it overshadows any loss in production, that won’t sit well with traders.” USDA does have the potential to lower world demand because of huge South American crops.
From the National Association of Farm Broadcasting News Service.