The latest USDA cherry production forecast points to a smaller U.S. crop this season after damaging spring weather affected major growing regions. A recent report highlighted USDA’s outlook for both sweet and tart cherries, with freeze events in Washington and Michigan contributing to lower expected yields.
Lance Honig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board at NASS, said adverse weather throughout the growing season has affected production in both Washington and Michigan, the nation’s leading sweet and tart cherry-producing states.
“The sweet cherries, Washington, the largest producing state, they had freeze events,” Honig said. “They had other problems relating to whether it be moisture or temperature, things of that nature.”
The result is a substantially smaller sweet cherry crop compared to last year.
USDA Cherry Production Forecast Shows Lower Sweet Cherry Production
According to USDA, nationwide sweet cherry production is forecast at 311,000 tons, representing a decline of nearly 17% from last season.
Honig said the combination of freezing temperatures and unfavorable weather conditions throughout the spring limited production potential in Washington, which typically leads the nation in sweet cherry output.
“Overall sweet cherry production we’re forecasting down nearly 17 percent from last year, just 311,000 tons,” he said.
The lower production estimate reflects weather impacts experienced during critical stages of bloom and fruit development.
USDA Cherry Production Forecast Highlights Tart Cherry Losses
Sweet cherries are not the only crop facing reduced production. Honig noted that Michigan’s tart cherry industry also suffered significant freeze damage this season.
“When we look at the tart cherries, unfortunately folks in Michigan had freeze issues this year as well,” he said.
USDA is forecasting just 91 million pounds of tart cherry production in 2026, a sharp decline from last year.
“So now we’re looking at just 91 million pounds expected to be produced, that’s 36 percent less than was produced last season, and last season wasn’t a high point either,” Honig said.
The forecast highlights how spring weather continues to influence specialty crop production across the country. While growers are accustomed to managing weather-related risks, widespread freeze events can have lasting impacts on both yield and market supplies.
Hear more from Lance Honig about this year’s sweet and tart cherry production forecasts by listening to the interview below.