The latest fresh fruit price outlook from USDA suggests consumers are likely to see relatively stable prices at the grocery store this year, even as growers continue to face pressure from weaker farm-level returns. A recent report highlighted new projections from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), showing modest retail price increases alongside declining farm prices for much of 2026.
According to the report, retail fresh fruit prices increased 0.6% from April to May and are currently 2.1% higher than they were one year ago. Looking ahead, ERS expects retail fresh fruit prices to increase by about 2% over the course of 2026, with projections ranging from a slight 0.3% decline to a 4.4% increase depending on market conditions.
While consumers may experience only modest price changes at the checkout line, the outlook has been more challenging for fruit growers.
Fresh Fruit Price Outlook Shows Retail Stability
The fresh fruit price outlook indicates that retail prices have remained one of the more stable categories within the produce department. Compared to many other food items that have experienced larger swings in recent years, fresh fruit prices have shown relatively modest increases.
ERS projects that this trend will continue throughout 2026, providing consumers with a fairly predictable retail pricing environment despite fluctuations in production costs and seasonal supplies.
For retailers, stable pricing may help maintain steady consumer demand for fresh fruit while supporting continued sales throughout the year.
Fresh Fruit Price Outlook Highlights Farm-Level Challenges
Although retail prices have remained steady, farm-level fruit prices have told a different story.
According to ERS, fruit prices at the farm level declined 12% in January compared to the previous year, followed by decreases of 8.5% in February, 10.4% in March, and 6.2% in April.
A 5.7% increase in May helped return farm prices to positive territory, but it was not enough to offset earlier declines.
As a result, ERS forecasts farm-level fruit prices will finish 2026 approximately 3.6% lower than the previous year.
The differing trends between retail and farm prices illustrate the complex economic environment facing specialty crop producers. While consumers continue to see relatively stable prices in grocery stores, growers are navigating tighter margins and changing market conditions.
Hear more about the latest fresh fruit price outlook and what it could mean for growers and consumers by listening to the report below.