Farmer sentiment surged in October, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index rose 27 points from September to reach 115, driven by improved expectations for the agricultural economy’s future. The Future Expectations Index jumped 30 points to 124, while the Current Conditions Index climbed to 95, reflecting ongoing concerns about the current economy compared to 2015-16’s downturn.
James Mintert, principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, highlighted a shift toward optimism. In October, 53% of producers expected challenging times for the agricultural economy in the coming year, down from 73% in September. Similarly, fewer producers expected financial strain on their farms, with 23% expressing concerns versus 38% the previous month.
The Farm Financial Performance Index rose 22 points to 90, buoyed by high crop yields and a smooth harvest. Additionally, farmland value expectations increased, with both short- and long-term indices up from September, reflecting producers’ hopeful outlook for 2025. Concerns over politics, input costs, and output prices, however, remain prevalent among respondents.
Farmer Sentiment in October Rebounded Ahead of the U.S. Election
November 5, 2024
James Mintert and Michael Langemeier, Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
October provided a surprising pre-election bounce in farmer sentiment as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index climbed to 115, 27 points higher than in September. The biggest driver of the sentiment improvement was an increase in producers’ confidence in the future, as the Future Expectations Index jumped 30 points to 124. The Current Conditions Index also rose in October but by a smaller amount. With a reading of 95, the Current Conditions Index confirmed that farmers think economic conditions this year are worse than last year and weaker than during the barometer’s base period of 2015-2016, which was in the early days of a multi-year downturn in the U.S. farm economy. Producers this month expressed some optimism that economic conditions will improve and not precipitate an extended downturn in the farm economy. The October barometer survey took place from October 14-18, 2024.
The overall improvement in farmer sentiment is better understood by examining responses to the individual questions used to generate the barometer. Much of the sentiment improvement was attributable to producers possessing a less pessimistic view of the U.S. agricultural economy. For example, the percentage of producers who expect bad times for the U.S. agricultural economy in the upcoming year declined from 73% of respondents in September to 53% in October. Similarly, the percentage of producers who expect bad times for U.S. agriculture in the next 5 years fell from 48% to 33%. Looking at a related question, fewer producers this month said they expect their farm’s financial condition to worsen over the next …..(Read the full report below)