Final USDA Citrus Production Forecast Shows Mixed Results for 2025 Season
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has released its final citrus production forecast for the 2025 season, reflecting both gains and losses across key citrus categories. Anthony Prillaman of NASS provided a detailed breakdown of production estimates for grapefruit, lemons, and tangerines, highlighting regional trends and shifts from earlier projections.
Grapefruit Production Continues to Decline
According to Prillaman, total U.S. grapefruit production is forecast at 307,000 tons, a 3.8% decrease from the June forecast and 6.4% below the previous season’s output. Florida, traditionally the leading state for grapefruit, has seen a sharp decline in production—down 490,000 boxes compared to last year. This marks the fourth lowest total on record for the Sunshine State, underscoring ongoing challenges in citrus groves, including weather impacts, disease pressure, and market volatility.
Lemon Production Sees Significant Year-Over-Year Growth
In contrast, lemon production has shown improvement. The forecast stands at 1.15 million tons, representing a 0.9% increase from last month and a 13.5% increase over last season. Most of the year-over-year growth can be attributed to California, where production has increased by 2.5 million boxes compared to the previous season. This rebound may reflect improved growing conditions and stronger market demand for lemons in both domestic and export markets.
Tangerine Production Rebounds in California
Tangerine production is also on the rise, with a final forecast of 1.14 million tons. This figure is 7.6% higher than last month’s estimate and 2.7% above last season’s total. The upward revision is due to a 2 million box increase in California’s production estimate, highlighting the state’s key role in national tangerine output. California’s favorable weather and expanded acreage likely contributed to the bump.
Conclusion
While grapefruit continues to struggle—particularly in Florida—the outlook for lemons and tangerines appears more optimistic, driven largely by gains in California. As the citrus sector continues to face challenges such as citrus greening and fluctuating weather patterns, these revised forecasts provide valuable insights into the evolving landscape of American citrus production.
Reporting by Lorrie Boyer for AgNet West.