California’s pistachio industry is facing one of its most challenging seasons in recent memory, and according to longtime crop advisor and pistachio expert Rich Kreps of UltraGro, growers should prepare for significantly lower production, careful inventory management, and an increased focus on post-harvest nutrition to ensure the long-term health of their orchards.
During an extensive interview with Nick Papagni (“The Ag Meter”), Kreps discussed the impact of this year’s extreme spring weather, global pistachio markets, California agriculture, water policy, grower profitability, and why he remains optimistic about the future of the industry despite what could be one of the smallest crops in years.
If you want an insider’s look at one of California’s most important tree nut industries, this is an interview you won’t want to miss.
Spring Heat Devastated Pistachio Pollination
Unlike almonds and walnuts, which are also running ahead of schedule this season, California pistachios were hit particularly hard by unusually warm temperatures during bloom.
Kreps explained that pistachio pollen loses viability when temperatures climb above approximately 85 degrees during flowering. While some orchards on the eastern side of the San Joaquin Valley and foothill regions escaped the worst conditions, many growers throughout the South Valley are discovering extensive pollination failures.
Some orchards that initially appeared to have strong crop potential are now showing as much as 90 percent blank nuts after growers began cutting clusters to evaluate the crop.
After producing more than 1.5 billion pounds last season, early industry estimates now range between 600 million and 900 million pounds, with Kreps personally forecasting approximately 650 million pounds statewide.
If those numbers hold, California’s pistachio crop could be reduced by more than half compared to last year.
Will Pistachio Prices Increase?
Naturally, a much smaller crop raises concerns about higher consumer prices.
Kreps believes processors will work carefully to avoid dramatic price spikes by pacing sales and managing inventories responsibly. While some increase appears inevitable, maintaining consumer demand remains the industry’s top priority.
Pistachios continue to provide exceptional nutritional value, offering:
- All nine essential amino acids
- High-quality plant protein
- Dietary fiber
- Healthy fats
- Important vitamins and minerals
Keeping pistachios affordable encourages consumers to continue purchasing them until larger crops return in future years.
California Harvest Will Begin Early
This year’s crop is expected to mature roughly one week earlier than normal.
However, many growers may intentionally delay harvest slightly in hopes of completing the crop with a single shake rather than two separate harvest passes.
According to Kreps, harvesting once instead of twice can:
- Save growers approximately $250-$300 per acre
- Reduce physical stress on the trees
- Preserve next year’s fruiting buds
- Allow orchards to begin recovery sooner
That recovery process has become one of the biggest advancements in pistachio production.
Post-Harvest Nutrition Is More Important Than Ever
Throughout the interview, Kreps repeatedly emphasized one message:
Don’t wait until fall to feed your trees.
Instead of waiting until October or November to begin nutritional programs, growers should begin replacing nutrients immediately after harvest while roots remain active.
Applying nutrition through drip irrigation immediately following harvest allows trees to:
- Recover from mechanical shaking
- Rebuild carbohydrate reserves
- Improve photosynthesis
- Strengthen next year’s fruiting buds
- Reduce alternate bearing
Kreps believes immediate recovery programs are becoming one of the biggest factors separating average orchards from exceptional ones.
New Pistachio Varieties Are Improving Consistency
Historically, California pistachios suffered from severe alternate bearing, with orchards producing extremely large crops one year followed by much smaller crops the next.
Traditional Kerman varieties often experienced dramatic swings.
Newer varieties including Golden Hills and Lost Hills are helping reduce those fluctuations while providing growers with more consistent annual production.
Combined with improved fertility programs, those newer varieties are making long-term budgeting much easier for growers.
Global Demand Remains Strong
Despite the expected production shortfall, Kreps remains confident in worldwide demand.
California processors are carefully slowing exports to ensure major international customers continue receiving adequate supplies.
Maintaining relationships with food manufacturers is especially critical because pistachios are ingredients in:
- Protein bars
- Snack mixes
- Health foods
- Packaged snacks
- Nut blends
If manufacturers remove pistachios from recipes because supplies disappear, rebuilding that demand could take years.
Fortunately, Kreps believes processors are doing an excellent job balancing current inventory while protecting future markets.
Carryover Inventory Will Be Extremely Tight
Unlike previous years, processors are expected to enter the new crop with almost no remaining inventory.
Large carryover supplies of 300 to 400 million pounds that once existed have essentially disappeared.
Instead, processors are expected to transition almost directly from remaining inventory into this year’s harvest.
California Agriculture Faces Larger Challenges
While pistachios dominated much of the discussion, the interview also explored broader issues affecting California agriculture.
Kreps discussed:
- Increasing regulatory costs
- Delays in USDA loan approvals
- Environmental permitting requirements
- Water availability
- Diesel fuel costs
- Labor expenses
- Food affordability
- Export competitiveness
He shared the example of a young minority farmer who has spent months waiting for government approval on a farm loan despite receiving approval from private lenders.
According to Kreps, lengthy environmental reviews, archaeological evaluations, and other regulatory requirements continue delaying projects that otherwise would already be moving forward.
Water Storage Remains a Major Concern
Water once again became one of the central topics of the conversation.
Kreps noted that California continues experiencing years with significant precipitation while still lacking adequate water storage infrastructure.
He argued that additional reservoir capacity would better prepare agriculture for future droughts while reducing uncertainty for growers throughout the Central Valley.
Family Farms Need the Next Generation
One of Kreps’ greatest concerns involves the future of family farming.
With the average California farmer now approximately 55 years old, many younger family members are choosing careers outside agriculture rather than assuming the financial risk and workload associated with farming.
While acknowledging the role larger farming operations play, Kreps hopes independent family farms continue succeeding for generations through profitable operations, local farmers markets, and continued community support.
California Remains the World’s Premier Pistachio Region
Despite this year’s disappointing crop, Kreps remains incredibly optimistic about California’s long-term future.
Only a handful of places worldwide possess the climate needed for high-quality pistachio production.
According to Kreps, nowhere matches California’s Central Valley for:
- Production scale
- Fruit quality
- Grower expertise
- Advanced orchard management
- Sustainability practices
Those advantages continue making California the global leader in pistachio production.
A Conversation That Goes Beyond Pistachios
In addition to discussing the pistachio industry, Papagni and Kreps also spent considerable time sharing their perspectives on California politics, water policy, international trade, federal agricultural leadership, elections, rural communities, and the future direction of the state’s farming industry.
Whether listeners agree or disagree with every opinion expressed, the conversation provides an in-depth look at many of the issues currently being discussed throughout California agriculture.
Listen to the Full Interview
This article captures the major highlights, but hearing Rich Kreps explain these topics in his own words provides additional context, stories, and firsthand insight that every pistachio grower and agricultural professional will appreciate.
From production forecasts and export markets to crop nutrition, water policy, and the future of California agriculture, the full interview offers valuable perspective from one of the industry’s most respected voices.
If you’re involved in pistachios—or simply want to better understand the challenges and opportunities facing California agriculture—you won’t want to miss this episode with “The Ag Meter” Nick Papagni.
Contact Rich Kreps
Growers interested in learning more about pistachio nutrition or orchard management can contact Rich Kreps and the UltraGro team:
Rich Kreps – UltraGro
- Phone: 559-706-6903
- Website: UltraGro.com
Kreps says UltraGro’s mission is simple:
“Help farmers help themselves.”
By working alongside growers with sound agronomic advice, post-harvest nutrition strategies, and crop-specific recommendations, UltraGro strives to help producers maximize both orchard health and long-term profitability.