A Return to the Conversation
Nick Papagni recently welcomed back Darren Hill, Sales Manager at JD Food and former five-star chef, to discuss the current state of the meat industry. Known for his expertise in beef, pork, poultry, and market dynamics, Hill provides insights that blend culinary knowledge with a deep understanding of supply and pricing trends.
The conversation explored a wide range of issues, from ongoing cattle shortages and high beef prices to Proposition 12’s effect on pork, the outlook for turkey season, and the unique challenges facing California’s beef industry.
Drought and Its Impact on Cattle Herds
Hill explained that severe drought conditions across the United States have caused major disruptions in beef supply. Nearly 30% of the nation is currently under drought classification, with the hardest-hit regions being key cattle-producing states such as Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas, and Texas.
Without natural forage, ranchers must purchase costly feed. As feed prices soar, many choose to send cattle to processing plants earlier rather than retaining female heifers for breeding. This process, called cattle retention, is essential for rebuilding herds but has declined sharply in recent years.
As a result, herd sizes have shrunk, supply is tight, and beef prices have escalated significantly.
Record-Low Cattle Numbers
The U.S. cattle inventory remains at historic lows, the lowest since 1951. Cattle retention for breeding is at its weakest point since 1973, though some ranchers are beginning to hold back females to rebuild herds.
However, rebuilding is a slow process. With a one-year gestation period and additional time needed for calves to mature, Hill predicted that meaningful recovery will not arrive until at least 2026 or 2027.
Consumer Demand Holds Firm
Despite soaring prices, demand for beef has remained resilient. Restaurants—particularly steakhouses—cannot replace beef without undermining their brand identity. Consumers, too, continue buying beef, often cutting back in other areas of their budgets.
Beef maintains cultural and seasonal importance, especially during the holidays. Traditional cuts such as prime rib and tenderloin remain staples at family gatherings, banquets, and catered events, regardless of price increases.
Grass-Fed vs. Grain-Fed: Personal Preference
The debate between grass-fed and grain-fed beef continues. Grass-fed is leaner and marketed as a healthier option, while grain-fed offers richer marbling and stronger flavor. Hill emphasized that both products serve distinct markets and that the choice ultimately comes down to consumer preference. JD Food supplies both, meeting the needs of diverse customers.
California’s Beef Industry
Although California is the largest state in the nation, its beef processing capacity is limited. Some areas are suitable for ranching, but transporting cattle into the state is costly, and strict regulations make operating facilities expensive.
The processing plants that do exist produce high-quality beef, but the state cannot supply even close to half of JD Food’s demand. To meet customer needs, the company sources beef from both California and across the Midwest. Some clients even request beef from specific states, such as Nebraska or Colorado, requiring flexible sourcing strategies.
Proposition 12: Pork Industry Adjusts
Proposition 12, California’s animal welfare regulation for pork production, initially caused disruption. But Hill said the industry is now adapting.
The price gap between compliant and non-compliant pork has narrowed. Non-compliant pork—produced outside California—can still be sold if it undergoes further processing in USDA-approved facilities, such as grinding, dicing, or full cooking. This creates a viable market while ensuring compliance with California’s standards.
Turkey Season Outlook
As the holidays approach, turkey demand increases. Hill confirmed JD Food secured strong supplies early, ensuring customers will not face shortages. Still, he noted that poultry markets remain vulnerable due to outbreaks of avian influenza, which have devastated chicken and turkey flocks nationwide.
Fall and Winter Meat Market Trends
Looking toward the colder months, Hill emphasized that beef prices will remain high, particularly for prestigious cuts like tenderloin and ribeye. Retail advertising often drives market trends, with national chains promoting seasonal comfort foods such as chuck rolls.
Recently, chuck roll prices jumped from about $4.50 per pound to over $7, yet demand held steady. Retailers continued to advertise pot roasts and braising cuts, demonstrating the enduring strength of beef even under record-high prices.
Tri-Tip: Scarce but Popular
Tri-tip remains a California favorite thanks to its versatility. Lean yet flavorful, it can be grilled, smoked, marinated, slow-cooked, or sliced for sandwiches.
Each tri-tip weighs around three to three-and-a-half pounds, and each cow produces only two. This means just six pounds of tri-tip comes from an 1,100-pound animal, making it one of the most limited cuts. Despite scarcity, tri-tip continues to grow in popularity across the state.
Remembering Coach Jon Anabo
Toward the end of the conversation, Papagni and Hill reflected on the passing of their former high school football coach, Jon Anabo. A former Fresno State quarterback who also played for the Cleveland Browns, Anabo was remembered as a man of charisma, character, and leadership.
Hill described the privilege of learning under a generation of great coaches and expressed sadness at Anabo’s loss, noting his lasting impact on athletes and the Fresno community.
📞 Contact Darren Hill at JD Food
For anyone with questions about beef, turkey, pork, or the meat supply chain, Darren Hill welcomes inquiries directly.
📧 Email: dhill@jdfood.com
👉 Note: it’s jdfood.com (singular, without an “s”).
Darren Hill is available to answer questions from chefs, retailers, foodservice operators, and consumers interested in protein supply trends, availability, and JD Food solutions.
Final Thoughts
Darren Hill closed by commending Papagni’s growing platform and encouraging him to continue hosting conversations that shed light on the realities of California’s meat industry.
Despite challenges such as drought, rising feed costs, Proposition 12 regulations, and ongoing poultry health issues, one thing remains clear: consumer demand for beef, pork, and poultry is unwavering, even in the face of record-high prices.