In June 2025, the Purdue University CME Group’s Ag Economy Barometer dropped 12 points to a reading of 146, reflecting growing caution among U.S. agricultural producers. Despite the decline, the index remains 41 points above its June 2024 level—signaling overall sentiment is still stronger than a year ago.
Short-Term Stability, Long-Term Concern
The Index of Current Conditions fell slightly by two points to 144, suggesting farmers still feel relatively stable in the present but are showing signs of short-term unease. The more notable shift came from the Index of Future Expectations, which dropped 18 points to 146, signaling heightened concern about the agricultural sector’s economic outlook in the months ahead.
Financial Sentiment Softens
The Farm Financial Performance Index, which tracks producers’ evaluations of their financial health compared to the previous year, slipped five points to 104. This suggests tightening profitability and increasing cost pressures are being felt across operations—even if financial conditions aren’t yet dire.
Investment Outlook: A Cautious Optimism
In contrast to declining sentiment elsewhere, the Farm Capital Investment Index rose by five points to 60. Notably, 24% of producers believe now is a good time to invest in their operations. However, this optimism is restrained—54% of respondents plan to cut back on equipment purchases this year, reflecting a strategic, cost-conscious approach to capital spending.
Farmland Value Expectations Improve
One bright spot is farmland: the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectation Index climbed five points year-over-year to 120. This rise underscores continued confidence in the long-term value of agricultural land, even amidst economic volatility.
A Complex Sentiment Landscape
Altogether, the June Ag Economy Barometer paints a nuanced picture of American agriculture. While producers remain relatively confident in current conditions, growing concerns about the future and rising costs are shaping a more cautious, calculated approach to investment and growth in 2025.