Corn: This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased food, seed and industrial (FSI) use and slightly higher prices. Corn production is forecast at 15.226 billion bushels, up 168 million from last month on a 1.9-bushel per acre increase in yield to 175.3 bushels per acre. Global coarse grain production for 2016/17 is forecast 4.9 million tons higher to 1,319.7 million.
Soybeans: Soybean production is forecast at 4,361 million bushels, up 92 million on higher yields. The soybean yield is projected at a record 52.5 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels mainly on production gains for Minnesota, North Dakota, and Kansas. Despite increased supplies, soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels to 1,930 million mostly due to reduced soybean meal export prospects.
Wheat: Projected 2016/17 U.S. ending stocks are raised 5 million bushels to 1,143 million on a reduction in food use. The food use change reflects the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report and expectations for the remainder of the market year. By class, Hard Red Winter (HRW) use is raised 10 million bushels, Hard Red Spring (HRS) is lowered 10 million, and Durum is lowered 5 million.
Rice: The 2016/17 U.S. rice crop is reduced 1.2 million cwt to 234.8 million on lower yields. Ending stocks are lowered by the same amount. The average yield forecast is reduced 39 pounds per acre to 7,493. Arkansas and Missouri were the only states to have reductions. The long-grain crop is reduced 0.9 million cwt to 176.1 million but still the largest since the 2010/11 record.
Sugar: The projection of beet sugar production from the 2016 sugarbeet crop is decreased slightly as reductions of area harvested and recovery offset an increase in sugarbeet yield. Fiscal year 2016/17 beet sugar production is further decreased by 94,649 short tons, raw value (STRV) because of earlier-than-forecast harvesting taking place in September, consequently increasing the 2015/16 beet sugar production total by that same amount.
Cotton: This month’s 2016/17 U.S. cotton estimates include slightly higher production and ending stocks, as a larger Texas crop is partially offset by decreases for the Southeast. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. U.S. ending stocks are now estimated at 4.5 million bales, equivalent to 29 percent of total disappearance. The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers of 63.0 to 71.0 cents per pound is raised on both ends.
Livestock, Poultry and Dairy: The 2016 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is increased from last month as higher fourth quarter beef and pork production forecasts more than offset reductions in broiler and turkey production. Beef production is increased on the pace of slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Pork production for 2016 is raised based on the current rate of slaughter. Broiler production is lowered based on September slaughter data. Turkey production is reduced based on the pace of slaughter.
For 2017, higher forecast beef production more than offsets lower pork and broiler production. Turkey production is unchanged. The increase in beef production reflects slaughter of cattle placed in late-2016 and early-2017 as well as slightly higher carcass weights. Pork production is lowered on slower expected gains in carcass weights. Broiler production for 2017 is lowered from last month on slower second-half growth. Table egg production is slightly reduced for both 2016 and 2017.
Milk production forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are lowered from last month as recent data indicated that the U.S. cow inventory increased less rapidly than previously expected. However, output per cow is raised from last month.
From the National Association of Farm Broadcasting news service.