The USDA’s February Farm Income Forecast predicts a 22% increase in cash farm income to $193.7 billion for 2025, with net farm income rising 29.5% to $180.1 billion. Despite a modest 1.8% decrease in cash receipts from commodity sales to $515 billion, direct government payments are projected to surge by $33.1 billion. This government support, along with a decrease in production expenses, is driving the overall improvement in farm income.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2025, February 6). Farm sector income & finances: Farm sector income forecast.
Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to increase in 2025 after declining in 2023 and 2024 from a record high in 2022. Forecast at $180.1 billion for 2025, net farm income would be $41.0 billion (29.5 percent) higher than in 2024. Net cash farm income is forecast at $193.7 billion for 2025, an increase of $34.5 billion (21.7 percent) relative to 2024 (not adjusted for inflation).
In inflation-adjusted 2025 dollars, net farm income is forecast to increase by $37.7 billion (26.4 percent) from 2024 to 2025, and net cash farm income is forecast to increase by $30.6 billion (18.8 percent) compared with the previous year. If realized, both measures in 2025 would remain above their 2004–23 averages (in inflation-adjusted dollars) yet below their record high in 2022.
See all forecast and estimate data on farm income and wealth statistics or see a summary of the forecasts in the table U.S. farm sector financial indicators, 2018–2025F.
Note: In the text below, year-to-year changes in the major aggregate components of farm income are generally discussed in nominal dollars, although cases are noted where the direction of change is reversed using inflation-adjusted dollars.
Summary Findings
- Overall, farm cash receipts are forecast to decrease by $1.8 billion (0.3 percent) from 2024 to $515.0 billion in 2025 in nominal dollars. Total crop receipts are forecast to decrease by $5.6 billion (2.3 percent) from 2024 levels to $239.6 billion following lower receipts for soybeans and corn. Conversely, total animal/animal product receipts are projected to increase by $3.8 billion (1.4 percent) to $275.4 billion in 2025. Receipts for hogs, milk, and broilers are forecast to rise relative to 2024.
- Direct Government farm payments are forecast at $42.4 billion for 2025, a $33.1-billion increase from 2024. Direct Government farm payments include Federal farm program payments paid directly to farmers and ranchers but exclude U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) loans and insurance indemnity payments made by the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC). The forecast increase is largely because of supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance to farmers and ranchers from the American Relief Act of 2025.
- Total production expenses, including those associated with operator dwellings, are forecast to decrease by $2.5 billion (0.6 percent) from 2024 to $450.4 billion in 2025. Spending on feed is expected to see the largest decline in 2025 while livestock/poultry purchases are expected to see the largest increase relative to 2024.
- Farm sector equity is expected to increase by 4.3 percent ($156.8 billion) from 2024 to $3.83 trillion in 2025 in nominal terms. Farm sector assets are forecast to increase 4.2 percent ($176.6 billion) to $4.40 trillion in 2025 following an expected increase in the value of farm real estate assets. Farm sector debt is forecast to increase 3.7 percent ($19.8 billion) to $561.8 billion in 2025. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to improve slightly from 12.8 percent in 2024 to 12.8 percent in 2025. Working capital is forecast to increase 3.9 percent in 2025 relative to 2024.
Total Cash Receipts Forecast To Fall in 2025
Total inflation-adjusted cash receipts are forecast to fall $14.2 billion (2.7 percent) from 2024 to $515.0 billion in 2025. Crop cash receipts are projected to ……..