World Agricultural Outlook Board Chairman Mark Jekanowski discussed USDA’s latest cattle market outlook, including lower steer price forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 as recent market conditions put pressure on cattle values.
Steer Price Forecasts Move Lower
USDA lowered its average steer price forecast for 2026 by $5.75 per hundredweight, bringing the projection to $245.35 per hundredweight.
The agency also lowered its 2027 forecast, with the average steer price now projected at $249.25 per hundredweight.
Jekanowski said the changes reflect recent price trends in the cattle market rather than a major shift in the longer-term outlook.
“And that price decline for this month, for both of those years, really just reflects what we’ve been observing in recent price data,” Jekanowski said.
The updated forecasts come as cattle prices have faced some downward pressure following a period of historically strong values. For producers, the changes provide an indication of how USDA expects current market conditions to influence prices moving forward.
Packers Facing Margin Pressure
Jekanowski pointed to developments in the packing sector as one factor contributing to the lower cattle price outlook.
“Packers are offering less for cattle,” he said.
At the same time, packers are dealing with tighter margins as boxed beef prices have declined. That combination is creating pressure throughout the cattle market, with some of that pressure moving back toward cattle producers.
“They’re also seeing their margins squeezed from recent declines in boxed beef prices as well,” Jekanowski said.
The relationship between fed cattle prices, boxed beef values and packer margins will remain an important factor for the cattle industry as producers move through the remainder of 2026 and begin making plans for the following year.
While the revised forecasts remain at relatively strong levels, the reductions signal that cattle producers may see some moderation from the elevated prices experienced in recent months.
Hear more from Mark Jekanowski on USDA’s latest cattle market projections in the audio report below.