USDA Reports Slight Drop in Monthly Red Meat Output
According to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), red meat production declined slightly in June 2025, falling 1% year-over-year. Total meat output for the month reached 4.22 billion pounds, compared to 4.26 billion pounds in June 2024. The decline was primarily driven by a decrease in beef production, which dropped 2% to 2.09 billion pounds.
Report by Lorrie Boyer for AgNet West:
Cattle Slaughter Drops While Live Weights Increase
The number of cattle slaughtered in June fell by 4% to 2.43 million head. However, live cattle weights increased by 26 pounds year-over-year, reaching an average of 1,408 pounds. This partial offset helped moderate the overall decline in beef production.
Pork Production Inches Up Despite Lighter Hog Weights
In contrast to the beef sector, pork production saw a slight increase in June. Output rose to 2.12 billion pounds, up marginally from the previous year. Hog slaughter was up 1% to 9.97 million head, although average live weights dipped slightly by one pound to 286 pounds.
First Half of 2025 Sees 2% Drop in Red Meat Production
From January through June 2025, total red meat production in the U.S. reached 26.7 billion pounds—a 2% decrease from the same period in 2024. During this six-month span, beef production fell 2%, while pork production was down by 1%.
Consumer Demand for Beef Remains Strong Despite Price Increases
One major question looming over the industry is how much longer consumers will be willing to pay high prices for beef. According to American Farm Bureau Federation economist Bernt Nelson, the choice-select spread—a key indicator of consumer willingness to pay premium prices for higher-grade beef—suggests continued strength in beef demand.
“It widened out, then narrowed a little bit, and yet it’s widened out again,” Nelson said. “When that spread is wide, it tells us our consumer is still willing to pay that.”
He explained that the spread between choice and select beef cuts was as low as $6–$7 just a month ago, but has now returned to around $14—a sign that buyers are still opting for premium beef despite elevated costs.
Market Outlook Hinges on Consumer Behavior
While production trends and slaughter numbers are closely monitored, consumer behavior remains a critical factor in market dynamics. As inflationary pressures continue and retail prices stay elevated, the industry will be watching closely to see whether American households remain committed to beef—or begin to shift toward more affordable proteins.