A Conversation with AgMeter and California Rancher Kevin Kester
An Early Fall, Rare Green Grass, and Life in Parkfield
As the conversation opens, AgMeter welcomes California rancher and former National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) President Kevin Kester—someone he describes as “one of the greatest guys I’ve ever met.” Kester begins with an update from his family ranch in Parkfield, a small ranching community about 30 miles northeast of Paso Robles.
This year, he explains, has brought a rare sight: green grass in the early fall. “We’ve had two different storms come in, really unusual for this early time of fall,” he says. “The last time that happened was probably 1995.” For a ranching operation, early rain and early grass are blessings. “It’s a good thing to have. We’ll take it while we can get it.”
Record-Low Cattle Numbers and Trump’s Argentina Comments
But the weather isn’t the only unusual development. As AgMeter notes, the nation is seeing some of the lowest cattle numbers since 1951, and recent comments from President Donald Trump about Argentina have stirred up the industry.
Kester begins by emphasizing strong support for Trump’s overall track record on agriculture. “He’s accomplished many great things for ranchers across the country,” he says, pointing to trade accomplishments and a USDA plan to expand grazing access, grow beef demand, and increase small processor capacity.
However, Trump’s recent statements about importing more Argentine beef—framed as a way to lower high U.S. beef prices—prompted concern. “There were some things he said about Argentina and the reason why beef prices are so high that weren’t really favorable to cattlemen and weren’t correct,” Kester explains. “So we had to do a little pushback…which was kind of uncomfortable to do.”
The president’s comments—first made aboard Air Force One—immediately impacted the futures market. By indicating that the U.S. might buy more Argentine beef to bring down prices, Trump unintentionally sent both live and feeder cattle markets to their daily limits. That impact reached all the way back to ranchers.
Trump then followed with a statement on X claiming that tariffs were the sole reason for record-high U.S. beef prices. “That was factually incorrect,” Kester says, and it set off a flurry of industry reaction—more than 32,000 letters to Congress in a week urging action on the Argentina issue.
Can the Cattle Industry and Trump Stay Aligned?
AgMeter draws a comparison to football, noting Kester’s passion for the San Francisco 49ers. In football—and in family farm operations—arguments happen, but teams work toward shared goals. Can the cattle industry and the Trump administration maintain their bond?
Kester answers confidently: “Oh, no. There’s no danger of anything being disrupted… We’re all on the same team pulling in the same direction.” He cites Ethan Lane, NCBA’s Washington, D.C. lead, who recently said that even teammates sometimes have “unfinished business” to work through.
Kester believes Trump’s intentions are good. But rather than a unilateral decision to import more beef, he recommends a fair and reciprocal trade agreement with Argentina.
The trade imbalance is striking:
- Argentina imported over $800 million of beef into the U.S. in the last five years.
- The U.S. sent only $7 million of beef to Argentina during that same period.
Correcting non-tariff barriers and balancing trade would better serve U.S. ranchers, he says. And even if Argentina quadrupled beef exports to the U.S., leading economists believe the effect on U.S. beef prices would be “negligible.”
“Let the free market and open markets take care of that,” Kester says.
Labels, Consumer Choices, and the Realities of the Buying Public
The conversation shifts to retail and labeling issues—a long-standing frustration among U.S. producers who compete against imports grown under cheaper labor, fewer regulations, and different standards.
Kester supports U.S.A. labeling but cautions that consumers must understand what labels actually mean. Polls often show that people claim they’ll pay more for U.S.-produced meat—but behavior at the checkout tells another story. “They’ll maybe pay a little more,” he explains, “but if a foreign label has a cheaper price, they’ll gravitate toward that to protect their pocketbook.”
Trying to Fix a Herd Shortage with Short-Term Measures
AgMeter suggests that Trump may be trying to “put a bandaid on the situation.” After all, rebuilding national cattle numbers takes roughly two years—far longer than most political decision-making cycles.
Kester agrees that Trump appears to be trying to help U.S. consumers facing high food prices, even if some of the specifics he cited weren’t accurate. “He’s not an agricultural guy,” Kester says. “He’s a New York real estate guy. But his intuition on agriculture…is very good.”
Still, complex agricultural economics require detailed information—details that may not have been fully conveyed to the president by advisors juggling countless global issues.
The President’s Style: Off-the-Wall Comments with a Deeper Plan
Over the years, Trump has become known for making provocative statements that later align with broader strategic goals. AgMeter points out that sometimes Trump says something on Monday that seems wild—and by Thursday, people realize he was ahead of the curve.
Kester agrees: “Don’t ever underestimate the president… He has a plan every time he says something.” Outsiders may not immediately understand where he’s headed, but in the end, “you say, oh, now I get it.”
How Kester Would Handle the Oval Office Conversation
When asked how he would approach Trump one-on-one in the White House, Kester doesn’t hesitate:
“I’d sit down and say, ‘Mr. President, I appreciate everything you’re doing, and we’re going in the right direction.’ But then I’d lay out the background, the history, and all the details we need to accomplish what you want to accomplish.”
Trade deals are complex, but Kester believes the framework is achievable—fair, reciprocal trade with Argentina and a strategy that strengthens U.S. ranchers while supporting global partners.
Beef Supply, Winter Demand, and Why Imports Still Matter
As the discussion turns to winter beef demand, AgMeter asks a straightforward question: Can the U.S. cattle industry meet domestic needs without relying on imports? Kester’s response is clear—yes, but with critical context.
“There could be enough,” he explains, “but at what price?” With historically low U.S. cattle supplies and rising consumer demand for protein, the industry risks pricing Americans out of a steak dinner if imports disappear.
Kester details how international trade supports the domestic beef supply chain. Exporting parts of the carcass less preferred by U.S. consumers—such as short ribs, tongues, livers, and tripe—allows producers to capture higher global value. Meanwhile, imports of lean beef from countries like Australia, Brazil, New Zealand, and Argentina help balance the U.S. supply of hamburger meat.
“We can’t produce enough hamburger for everybody that likes to eat at McDonald’s,” Kester says. Without imported lean beef, U.S. processors would need to grind high-value steaks—a financial loss for both ranchers and consumers. Two-way trade keeps steaks in the meat counter and affordable hamburgers on the menu.
Monitoring the Screwworm Threat: Progress and Persistent Risk
The conversation shifts to animal health, specifically the New World screwworm—an invasive pest capable of devastating livestock populations. Kester reports that approximately 200 USDA employees are currently stationed in Mexico, assisting the Mexican government with trapping, surveillance, and monitoring.
Mexico’s agriculture minister is scheduled to visit Washington, D.C. to discuss reopening the U.S. border to Mexican cattle, but recent screwworm findings complicate the timeline. The two most recent confirmed cases were:
- One 140 miles south of the Texas border
- Another 70 miles south of the border
While no new cases have been confirmed in the past four weeks, Kester warns that wildlife movement could still carry the pest northward.
To prepare, USDA is moving forward with new sterile fly production facilities in Texas. Some components may be ready soon, but full operational capacity may not arrive until late 2026.
Safety Concerns in Mexico
When AgMeter raises the risks USDA workers face in certain cartel-controlled regions of Mexico, Kester acknowledges the difficulty.
“I’ve been to Mexico many, many times in the last ten years,” he says. “There are a few places I’d take my family…but I would generally not want to have them down in the countryside.”
Prop 50: A Major Concern for California Agriculture
AgMeter asks Kester about Proposition 50, a ballot measure with major implications for California representation. Kester does not mince words: “It’s extremely big for the cattle industry, agriculture, for California in general.”
Kester and his family have already cast their mail-in ballots, but polling indicates the measure may pass—and he is deeply concerned. Although some campaigns are trying to tie the issue to Donald Trump, Kester stresses that Prop 50 has nothing to do with him.
Instead, he explains, Prop 50 is political retaliation connected to redistricting efforts in Texas, Missouri, and other states. California’s version was created behind closed doors, “without any input from the public or the light of day,” a process he calls deeply troubling.
If Prop 50 passes, Kester warns that Central Valley agriculture stands to lose significant political representation—raising food prices and harming both producers and consumers.
On the federal level, California could be left with as few as four Republican representatives out of 52 seats.
Looking Ahead: What Does 2026 Look Like for the Beef Industry?
As the interview nears its close, AgMeter asks Kester for his forward-looking outlook.
Kester laughs: “I wish I had a crystal ball. In my more mature years, I’ve given up trying to predict markets or football games.”
Still, he offers an informed, steady perspective. If the industry avoids catastrophic disruptions—foreign animal disease outbreaks, geopolitical shocks, or “anything out of the ordinary”—he expects:
- Strong markets in the near term
- Cattle numbers to rise over the next several years
- Consumer beef prices to level off or soften
- Continued strong domestic and international demand
Despite record-high retail prices, demand has not weakened. “Not one iota yet,” he emphasizes. High-quality U.S. beef remains in high demand because grading is at an all-time high—more Prime and Choice than ever.
“That’s why they’re still buying it,” he says. “Even at these record high prices.”
A Warm Close to a Wide-Ranging Conversation
The conversation ends on a lighthearted note, with AgMeter praising Kester’s background—not only as a rancher and NCBA president, but as a former offensive coordinator for the Shandon Outlaws. Kester congratulates AgMeter on his new nickname, “Nick the all pro schmoozer,” prompting more laughs.
As they wrap up, AgMeter promises to visit the Kester ranch soon for lunch, and Kester responds with trademark warmth: “You’re welcome anytime, Nick. Come on out.”