As the United States transitions to a new administration in January, California’s agricultural sector is preparing for significant shifts in trade policy. Ron Baumgarten, a trade expert and former official at the U.S. Trade Representative‘s office, provided insights into potential challenges and opportunities in the coming months during a recent discussion.
Baumgarten emphasized that while the president-elect’s campaign highlighted a focus on aggressive tariff policies, the actual approach is expected to be more calculated. “We are likely to see tariffs used as leverage to negotiate trade deals,” he said. The administration’s intent appears to be leveraging increased tariffs to extract concessions from trading partners, similar to strategies used during the president-elect’s previous term.
California agriculture, however, faces unique vulnerabilities. Unlike Midwest states that focus on large-scale commodity crops like soybeans, California produces specialty crops such as almonds, wine, and dairy. These products are not only subject to tariffs but also non-tariff barriers such as phytosanitary standards, labeling requirements, and food safety regulations. Baumgarten noted that retaliation from trade partners, particularly China, could again target California products, as was seen during earlier trade disputes.
While some California farmers might welcome the administration’s intent to reduce regulations, they remain wary of the trade-offs. “Farmers might gain from fewer domestic regulations,” Baumgarten explained, “but higher tariffs could limit access to key export markets.” California’s heavily regulated farming community must weigh these potential benefits against the risk of reduced global competitiveness.
Baumgarten also highlighted the possibility of swift action on trade. Drawing from his experience with the president-elect’s prior administration, he recalled rapid policy decisions, such as the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership shortly after inauguration. However, broader tariff increases and trade agreements may require congressional approval. He noted the involvement of farm-state leaders in Congress, such as Senate Majority Leader John Thune, could help shape balanced policies that mitigate the risks for agricultural producers.
The administration is likely to pursue aggressive strategies to open new markets for American products while protecting domestic industries. During the previous administration, trade agreements with Japan and negotiations with countries like Kenya and the UK demonstrated this approach. Similar efforts may emerge, Baumgarten predicted, as the administration seeks to replicate its earlier successes.
For California farmers, the stakes are high. The state’s agricultural exports have historically been critical to its economy, and the industry must navigate both potential opportunities from deregulation and challenges posed by trade barriers. As Baumgarten summarized, the incoming administration will likely aim for a balance: “There will be efforts to support the rural economy while ensuring that trade conflicts don’t unduly harm agricultural sectors.”
While uncertainties remain, the agricultural community will closely monitor how the administration’s trade strategies unfold, particularly their impact on California’s diverse farming landscape.
Sabrina Halvorson
National Correspondent / AgNet Media, Inc.
Sabrina Halvorson is an award-winning journalist, broadcaster, and public speaker who specializes in agriculture. She primarily reports on legislative issues and hosts The AgNet News Hour and The AgNet Weekly podcast. Sabrina is a native of California’s agriculture-rich Central Valley.