Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook

Dan Commodity Report, Industry News Release

Net Exports of Total Red Meat and Poultry To Increase in 2016 and 2017

better times
USDA forecasts for net exports (exports minus imports) of red meat and poultry in 2016 and 2017 show progressive increases, largely due to recovery in the U.S. beef sector and expectations of solid growth in poultry exports. U.S. beef exports are expected to increase by almost 9 percent in 2016 and by almost 7 percent next year, as beef sector recovery continues and U.S. production increases. Beef imports are forecast to decline by about 10 percent this year and 11 percent in 2017, as supplies in Oceania tighten with herd rebuilding and larger supplies of U.S. beef become available at lower prices. Net poultry exports (broiler meat and turkey) are forecast to increase both this year (+4 percent) and in 2017 (+5 percent) due to stronger production, driven by lower feed costs and by strong foreign demand for relatively low-priced meat protein.


August placement of cattle on feed was up 15 percent from the same period last year but, the cattle market continues to confound industry watchers as market prices throughout the cattle and beef complex continue to decline.


Milk cow number forecasts have been raised from last month’s forecast for the remainder of 2016 and for 2017. Higher exports are expected than forecast last month. Forecasts for butter and cheese prices have been lowered, while those for nonfat dry milk and dry whey prices have been raised. The all-milk price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2016 is $15.85-$16.25 per cwt, a reduction from $17.25-$17.75 forecast last month. The all-milk price forecast for 2017 is $15.55-$16.45, a reduction from $16.15-$17.15 forecast last month.


The September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed record-high September 1 inventories and a record-high litter rate for the June-August pig crop. These metrics, taken together with strong producer farrowing intentions, foreshadow production increases and lower hog prices in 2017.


Broiler production forecasts were reduced for 2016 and 2017 due to slower than expected growth in bird weights, while forecast egg production was increased. Exports for broilers, turkeys, and eggs were up in August to the highest levels since avian influenza occurred in millions of layers and turkeys in 2015. Price forecasts were reduced across broilers, turkeys, and eggs for 2016 and reduced for broilers and eggs for 2017.

Read the full USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report (with all charts). (.pdf)