The “Godfather of Raisins” on Trade, Acreage Loss, and What Comes Next
California’s raisin industry is facing one of the most turbulent periods in its history, according to Kalem Barsarian, former CEO of the Raisin Bargaining Association and widely regarded as the godfather of the raisin industry. Speaking on Ag Meter, Barsarian outlined a sobering mix of declining consumption, shrinking acreage, and structural change that is reshaping raisin production across the state.
The industry has seen a dramatic fall in shipments over the past decade. In 2016, California shipped more than 300,000 tons of raisins. Last season, that number dropped to roughly 170,000 tons. Barsarian attributes the decline to changing consumer habits since COVID, a lack of domestic advertising, and increased competition for shelf space in grocery stores.
Despite lower global production—down roughly 21 percent year over year—sales have not kept pace. California production is expected to land near 180,000 tons this season, meaning surplus inventories continue to build. That oversupply has weakened grower prices and intensified pressure on packers and farmers alike.
Barsarian also points to massive acreage losses. In 2000, California had nearly 280,000 acres of Thompson Seedless vineyards. Today, that figure has fallen to about 70,000 acres, with another 20,000 acres planted in newer hybrid and overhead dry-on-the-vine systems. He predicts traditional Thompson Seedless vineyards could disappear entirely within the next decade, replaced by mechanized, high-efficiency systems that allow growers to survive rising labor and regulatory costs.
Trade policy is one bright spot. Raisin imports—once totaling nearly 30,000 tons annually from South Africa, Argentina, and Chile—have slowed sharply due to new tariffs. Barsarian says California growers have long been disadvantaged by foreign ad valorem duties, sometimes exceeding 100 percent, making U.S. raisins uncompetitive abroad. He views the current trade reset as long overdue.
Industry leaders are now looking to Washington for relief. A delegation of cooperative leaders and major packers recently met with the USDA, seeking expanded purchases for school lunch and food assistance programs. Barsarian believes increased government buying could help reduce inventories and stabilize prices.
Still, he stresses that long-term survival will require more than policy support. Without a return to generic marketing—similar to the iconic Dancing Raisins campaign of the 1980s—consumer demand may continue to erode. The industry, he says, must adapt or risk further contraction.