California’s water future, the impact of SGMA, agricultural land, new crop opportunities and changing water-management strategies were all part of a wide-ranging conversation when Duarte Nursery President John Duarte joined “The Ag Meter” Nick Papagni.
The interview covers a tremendous amount of ground, from the recent Turlock Water Forum and California water infrastructure to pistachios, almonds, avocados and the potential use of improved weather forecasting in reservoir management.
For anyone following California agriculture, the full conversation offers much more detail than can be captured in a short recap.
Water Infrastructure Takes Center Stage
Duarte discussed a recent water forum hosted by Congressman Tom McClintock in Turlock, where federal and agricultural representatives examined California’s water challenges.
Duarte said the discussion included the Army Corps of Engineers, flood control, water storage and the potential for additional Delta dredging. He argued that reservoir operations should better balance flood protection with water supply, particularly when reliable weather forecasts indicate a dry or normal year.
The conversation also examined California’s 2014 Proposition 1 water bond. Duarte questioned how the bond’s funding can be used and argued that California needs significantly more infrastructure specifically designed to provide reliable water for communities, farms and other human uses.
Water quality was another major concern. Duarte discussed groundwater dependence in portions of the Central Valley and raised concerns about contaminants and health challenges affecting vulnerable communities. He argued that expanding reliable surface-water deliveries could reduce groundwater dependence while providing water for both farms and households.
SGMA and the Push for More Surface Water
The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act was another major topic.
Duarte said he is dealing directly with SGMA issues involving orchards in the Modesto area and argued that groundwater management must be considered alongside reliable surface-water deliveries.
He contended that California already has much of the engineering knowledge, infrastructure and potential funding necessary to expand water supplies, but said greater political coordination is needed.
Duarte also discussed the possibility of using state and federal cooperation to accelerate water projects and said the upcoming California Water Alliance forum will examine alternatives to current water policies.
The California Water Alliance has confirmed Duarte serves on its board and says its mission includes promoting reliable and sustainable water supplies for California.
Protecting Farmland and Agricultural Education
The interview also turned to agricultural land and education.
Duarte and Papagni discussed concerns about development involving farmland at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. Duarte emphasized the importance of university farms as hands-on learning environments for students preparing for careers in agriculture.
He also explained Duarte Nursery’s longstanding practice of supporting agricultural education by providing nursery products to schools, community colleges and universities for educational farms.
Duarte argued that preserving working school farms gives students practical experience with crops, irrigation, soil and modern agricultural technology.
California Agriculture Looks for New Crop Opportunities
As the conversation shifted toward production, Duarte offered his outlook on several important California crops.
He expects a significantly smaller pistachio crop this year and referenced a projection that had declined from roughly 1.6 billion pounds to around 1 billion pounds.
Duarte said a short crop could support prices but could also make it more difficult for the industry to satisfy demand.
He also highlighted Duarte Nursery’s VigorClone pistachio rootstock, saying long-term trials have shown strong production results compared with UCV1 seedling material.
Almond production is also coming in below expectations in many areas, according to Duarte. He discussed the Yorizane almond variety, which he said continues to perform well in regional trials despite a roughly 20 percent production decline at Duarte Nursery this year.
Avocados Emerging as a Potential Valley Crop
One of the most intriguing portions of the interview focused on avocados.
Duarte said Duarte Nursery is expanding its avocado propagation efforts and expects to promote avocado trees for Valley planting more aggressively around 2027 and 2028.
He acknowledged that freezes remain a potential risk but said the crop could provide an alternative for growers looking for additional opportunities.
Duarte also said growers in Northern California, including some grape producers, are examining alternative crops, and he believes avocados could have potential in areas with lower freeze risk.
Olive oil production was another alternative discussed. Duarte noted growing interest in high-end olive orchards but questioned whether current yields provide enough revenue to justify California’s land and production costs.
Could Better Weather Forecasts Change Water Management?
Duarte also described his work with meteorologist Rob Dornboss, founder of Weather Tools.
According to Duarte, the Weather Tools system provides seasonal precipitation forecasts for California and has been used by water districts and other users.
Duarte believes broader access to those forecasts could help state and federal water managers make earlier decisions about reservoir operations, flood-control space, groundwater recharge and water deliveries.
He specifically pointed to the Army Corps of Engineers’ role in setting flood-control curves at reservoirs.
Duarte argued that if forecasts indicate a dry or normal year, reservoirs may not need to maintain the same amount of flood-control space required when a major storm season is expected.
He believes incorporating more accurate seasonal forecasts into reservoir management could potentially make additional water available for farms, communities and families while maintaining flood protection.
October 1 Water Forum to Explore California’s Water Future
Duarte also invited listeners to attend the California Water Alliance 2026 Water Forum on October 1 at Belmont Country Club in Fresno.
He said the event will address California water abundance, Central Valley health concerns, SGMA, agriculture and the economic effects of water policy.
For listeners interested in California agriculture and water, Duarte’s conversation with Papagni provides an unusually broad look at the issues affecting growers and rural communities.
Listen to the full AgNet News Hour interview with “The Ag Meter” Nick Papagni and John Duarte for the complete discussion, including Duarte’s views on California water policy, SGMA, reservoir management, crop production, new agricultural opportunities and the future of California farming. AgNet West has also published coverage of Duarte’s continuing water-abundance discussions.
Contact John Duarte
Email: john@duartenursery.com
Phone: 209-531-6874
California Water Alliance
Information about the organization and its water-policy work is available through the California Water Alliance.