China’s grain supply won’t be affected by a loss of U.S. feed grain and oilseed imports, thanks to abundantly available substitutes on the global market and sufficient reserves at home. The world’s top buyer of soybeans is set to receive a mammoth amount of oilseed from South America in the second quarter, easing a supply shortage and helping to further cool animal feed prices.
Inbound shipments, mainly from Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay, are poised to climb to more than 30 million tons during the period from April to the end of June. China has moved to diversify its sources of grains in recent years and has shifted to buying more Brazilian soybeans as the trade war sparked by President Donald Trump’s tariffs makes purchases of US crops unviable.
American grains like soybeans, corn, and sorghum can be easily substituted and the supplies on the international market are quite sufficient. Even without purchases of US feed grains and oilseed, there won’t be much impact on China’s grain supply.