A Deepening Crisis in California’s Meat Industry
Darren Hill, a seasoned sales manager at JD Food in Fresno, California, recently sat down to discuss the growing challenges in the state’s meat industry. With more than 35 years of experience in the beef business, Hill brings valuable insight into the evolving landscape of California’s beef supply chain—one now grappling with historic lows in cattle numbers and increasing regulatory burdens.
Cattle Numbers Plunge to Historic Lows
According to Hill, the California beef industry is entering 2025 in a severely compromised position. “The beef supply has been extremely compromised,” Hill explained. “It’s been compromised for a couple years, but it’s really starting to show its true colors right now.” Industry forecasts suggest that the crisis could persist well into 2026.
The statistics are staggering. Hill noted that current cattle inventories are at their lowest point since 1951. This unprecedented drop is creating a ripple effect across the supply chain, especially as consumer demand remains unwavering.
Demand Remains Strong Despite High Prices
“Consumers have not reached a level of resistance,” Hill emphasized. “They continue to buy beef. Beef does a really good job of marketing their product. So it’s on a lot of people’s diets, a lot of menus.”
This stable—and even strengthening—demand, coupled with drastically reduced cattle numbers, is driving beef prices higher. “When demand stays steady and actually catering on the stronger side, and you take the equation of very low cattle supplies, you just end up with simple economics,” Hill said. “Prices escalate to very high numbers, which we’re experiencing right now.”
What This Means for the Market
For distributors, grocers, and consumers alike, the impact is already being felt at the checkout line. JD Food, a third-generation meat distributor, is at the front lines of this shift. Hill’s comments serve as a stark reminder of the broader supply and demand challenges facing California agriculture—particularly in sectors like beef where long production cycles and environmental pressures complicate quick fixes.
Hear the Full Interview
To listen to the complete interview with Darren Hill and learn more about California’s evolving meat industry, visit agnetwest.com.
—By Nick Papagni, “The Ag Meter”, for AgNet West