Industry Legends Reflect on the Past and Present
The raisin industry in California, once a dominant force in global dried fruit production, is undergoing dramatic changes. In a recent conversation hosted by Nick Papagni, three longtime leaders shared their perspectives on the state of the sector:
- Kalem Barsarian, widely regarded as the “godfather of raisins” and a member of the industry’s Hall of Fame.
- Dwayne Cardoza, Vice Chairman of the Raisin Bargaining Association (RBA).
- Mark McCormick, President and CEO of National Raisins.
Together, they examined the rise and decline of the industry, the mounting challenges growers face, and the pressing issues of pricing and global competition.
A Century of Change: From Global Leader to Declining Output
Kalem Barsarian opened the discussion by recalling the proud history of California raisins. A century ago, raisins were considered the “kings of the valley,” dominating the state’s agricultural landscape. In 1900, industry pioneer Theodore Kearney laid the foundation for grower cooperatives, efforts that eventually led to the establishment of Sun-Maid.
However, the situation in 2025 looks far different. California raisin production, which reached 400,000 tons annually just 25 years ago, has now declined sharply. For the past five years, the state has not produced more than 200,000 tons, and the outlook for this year is no better. Once ranked as the world’s leading producer of dried grapes, California has slipped to fourth place globally—behind Turkey and other countries—and may fall further.
The decline is linked to shifting land use. As pistachios, almonds, citrus, and other crops became more profitable, many growers abandoned raisin grapes. Families who inherited small plots of 20 to 80 acres often converted them to higher-value crops.
Despite the challenges, Barsarian emphasized that the industry is not gone. Around nine or ten processors remain active, and a core group of growers continues to produce raisins, though the environment has been reshaped by global markets, COVID-era disruptions, and international trade tariffs.
Growers Under Pressure: Rising Costs and Weather Challenges
Dwayne Cardoza highlighted the immediate pressures facing raisin growers in 2025. The RBA recently offered processors $2,020 per ton for the current crop, matching last year’s price. But with production costs rising 10–15%, growers are actually seeing negative returns compared to the previous season.
Adding to the financial strain, heavy rains this season have caused widespread vineyard damage. Another storm expected soon could reduce yields even further, putting the year’s crop at risk of falling below 150,000 tons.
“The growers are going to suffer loss this year because of the rain,” Cardoza explained. “With the increase in production costs, it’s going to be a no-win situation for the growers regardless.”
Currently, California has about 90,000 acres of raisin grape varieties, but competition from abroad is fierce. Turkey has overtaken the U.S. in many markets and now dominates sales across Europe. Turkish raisins are currently priced 20 to 30 cents per pound higher than California raisins, creating an opportunity for U.S. growers if domestic processors adjust pricing to reflect true costs.
Cardoza stressed the need for higher prices in the U.S. market and called for retailers and buyers to understand the impact of their demands on grower sustainability.
Competing with Turkey: A Different Playing Field
While California growers face strict labor, environmental, and food safety regulations, conditions in Turkey are very different. Cardoza described a system where most of Turkey’s 46,000 raisin growers farm only one to two acres each, often producing multiple crops on the same land. Many still dry raisins using traditional methods, such as laying them out on cow dung, raising serious concerns about food safety and sanitation.
“This is not apples to apples,” Cardoza noted, emphasizing the significant differences in production costs and standards between California and Turkey.
The Retail Pressure Point
Mark McCormick, CEO of National Raisins, underscored the central challenge of balancing grower sustainability with retailer demands. National Raisins, which holds about 85% of the U.S. private-label retail market, has long-term relationships with major grocery chains. But in recent years, persistent food inflation has made retailers increasingly resistant to price increases.
“Our primary shareholders are our farmers,” McCormick said. “We know the farms have to make money.”
Despite retailer pushback, McCormick and his team are working to share the realities of grower costs with buyers. He recently hosted a delegation from Japan who visited California farms and saw the impact of weather damage firsthand. While international buyers are beginning to recognize the need for higher prices, domestic retailers remain the most difficult to convince.
Shelf Life, Global Trade, and Shifting Varieties
One of the strengths of raisins is their stability as a product. As Kalem Barsarian explained, raisins are dried fruit with a shelf life of about one year when properly stored. However, the challenges facing the industry go far beyond product longevity.
Barsarian pointed to unfair global trade practices that have persisted for decades. Countries like Turkey and Iran have long benefited from government subsidies, giving them an advantage over California growers who must operate without such support. This imbalance, combined with higher land values for competing crops like pistachios and almonds, has caused significant acreage loss in California’s raisin vineyards.
He also highlighted the decline of the Thompson Seedless grape, which has been the backbone of raisin production for decades. Originally descended from the Muscat, once the leading grape variety in the early 1900s, Thompson Seedless dominated raisin production for generations. Today, however, it is being replaced by earlier-maturing grape varieties that allow raisins to dry on the vine, increasing efficiency and reducing labor needs. Barsarian believes that while the industry will continue to evolve, there is still a long-term future for California raisins—albeit in a different format than the past century.
The Future of Raisins: New Varieties and Marketing Strategies
For growers, the key to survival is vineyard modernization. Dwayne Cardoza stressed that the days of Thompson Seedless raisins are numbered, predicting they will disappear entirely within the next five years. The transition to newer varieties, however, comes with steep costs.
- Open gable vineyard systems require about $15,000 per acre in development.
- Flat overhead systems cost even more, at about $20,000 per acre.
These expenses do not include the cost of land itself, making investment a major barrier for many small family growers. Still, Cardoza noted that some growers, including his own family, are investing in the transition.
Another important shift is the move toward closer relationships between growers and end users. Buyers are increasingly looking for specialized products, such as organic raisins or those grown under regenerative agricultural practices. These designations are highly attractive to retailers, particularly in overseas markets, and can provide a competitive edge. Cardoza sees this as a key part of the raisin industry’s marketing evolution, with early adopters positioning themselves at the forefront of consumer demand.
Regulatory Burdens and Industry Realities
Nick Papagni raised the question of whether California’s political environment has offered meaningful support for raisin producers. Mark McCormick, CEO of National Raisins, did not hesitate in his response: “No, they’re not helping at all.”
McCormick explained that California’s strict food safety and labor regulations, while important, create significant costs for processors and growers. His company maintains a BRC Double A Plus rating, one of the highest global food safety certifications, but achieving and maintaining that standard is extremely expensive.
In addition to regulatory costs, rising wages, health care, and insurance add to the financial pressures. While McCormick acknowledged the necessity of fair wages and benefits, he emphasized that government support has been nonexistent.
Instead, McCormick described a symbiotic relationship between growers and processors, centered on quality. National Raisins pays bonuses for the highest quality fruit, which not only benefits farmers but also improves efficiency at the processing level and enhances customer satisfaction. “We’ve got to join hand in hand, arm in arm, with the growers and walk forward together,” he said. “We’re going to figure it out without the government.”
Washington’s Role: USDA Programs and Trade Negotiations
Kalem Barsarian offered a contrasting perspective based on his six decades of experience navigating agricultural policy. He credited the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) for providing consistent support to the raisin industry across multiple administrations.
Key programs include:
- School Lunch and Needy Persons Programs, which have long included raisin purchases.
- The Market Access Program (MAP), which has provided about $3.5 million annually since 1984 to support generic advertising of California raisins in overseas markets.
- Crop insurance programs administered under the USDA, offering growers protection in difficult years.
Barsarian emphasized that USDA officials have consistently been receptive to industry concerns, regardless of the political administration in power.
However, international trade barriers remain a major issue. Barsarian described decades of work addressing tariffs and ad valorem duties in export markets. For example, when California raisins were shipped to South Korea, importers were once required to pay an additional dollar in duty for every dollar’s worth of raisins imported—even though South Korea does not produce raisins domestically. After years of negotiations, that duty was reduced to about 25%, but such battles continue to define the industry’s trade environment.
Barsarian expressed optimism that the current U.S. administration is beginning to recognize the longstanding inequities in trade policy that have placed California growers at a disadvantage.
Competing with Turkey and Leveraging USDA Programs
When it comes to competing with lower-cost raisin producers such as Turkey, the U.S. industry continues to rely heavily on tariff structures and government partnerships. Dwayne Cardoza noted that tariffs have, at least temporarily, created a buffer for California growers, limiting some imports and offering relief across multiple commodities.
The Raisin Bargaining Association (RBA) has taken a leading role in working with federal officials to ensure ongoing support. Cardoza explained that the USDA has become the industry’s second-largest customer, purchasing raisins for school lunches and aid programs. Industry leaders are also preparing for meetings in Washington, D.C. this November to discuss new opportunities, particularly around USAID, which has shifted administration under the State Department.
Recently, the raisin industry even proposed a $40 million purchase of California raisins for federal food assistance programs, with the request now moving through the approval process. These purchases not only provide healthy food for families in need but also stabilize the grower base and help processors maintain profitability.
Sustainability, Water, and Energy Challenges
Water remains one of California agriculture’s most pressing challenges, and raisin processors are investing heavily in sustainability initiatives to adapt. Mark McCormick shared that National Raisins has long prioritized conservation, making significant investments in renewable energy and efficiency:
- The company once operated the largest privately held solar farm in California.
- It utilizes an anaerobic digester to handle water management.
- The entire facility has been converted to LED lighting for energy savings.
- Packaging suppliers are held to strict waste-reduction standards.
McCormick explained that while tariff uncertainty has disrupted export business, particularly with prunes to China, the company remains committed to finding new markets. “The world needs fruit,” he said. “We want to provide it. Customers will call, and we’ll find the right way.”
A Future Built on New Varieties
Looking ahead, Kalem Barsarian stressed that the California raisin industry will look very different in the coming decades. Just as Muscats gave way to Thompson Seedless, the future belongs to new hybrid varieties that can dry naturally on the vine, cutting labor costs and improving efficiency.
Dwayne Cardoza has been at the forefront of this transition, heavily investing in the development of these varieties. Barsarian sees their adoption as the foundation of a more sustainable industry: “We’re going to have a new industry created with a raisin grape. But it isn’t going to be a Thompson Seedless. It’s going to be something better.”
With processors already equipped with state-of-the-art technology, and growers adopting these modern varieties, Barsarian believes the industry will remain viable long into the future.
Advocacy, Retail, and Economic Sustainability
Advocacy remains a crucial part of survival. Cardoza emphasized that RBA leaders continue to attend meetings with lawmakers and agricultural stakeholders to ensure the raisin industry’s voice is heard—on issues ranging from immigration to investment in new production systems. “If you want to be a viable raisin grower,” he told his peers, “you need to get the new varieties. You need to get the new systems and invest.”
On the retail side, McCormick explained that the company is in constant dialogue with major retailers including Costco, Walmart, Kroger, and Publix. These conversations carry a clear message: raisin growers are investing heavily in their land, and that investment must be economically sustainable. He stressed that sustainability means more than environmental stewardship—it means ensuring that farms can remain profitable for future generations.
Bringing retailers into the conversation through farm tours and plant visits has helped build understanding, but the challenge remains in pricing negotiations. “At the end of the day,” McCormick said, “we have to be very firm with them about where pricing needs to be. That’s our job—getting the greatest return back to the farm.”
From Field to Fork: A Shared Responsibility
As the discussion closed, both Cardoza and McCormick reinforced the idea that success depends on the entire supply chain working together. Processors must remain profitable, growers must earn enough to justify reinvestment, and retailers must recognize the true cost of producing high-quality raisins.
“It is absolutely about economic sustainability,” McCormick said. “From field to fork, it’s a symbiotic relationship. Our job is to deliver high quality at the best possible price—and to build an industry on that foundation.”
Barsarian, reflecting on his decades in the business, reminded listeners that raisins remain a vital part of California agriculture, even as the state produces more than 300 crops. With new varieties, innovative farming practices, and continued advocacy, the raisin industry is preparing for a new era—one that honors its history while embracing its future.