Warm spring conditions are taking a toll on California’s pistachio and almond crops, with growers reporting lower-than-expected yields across both commodities. John Duarte of Duarte Nurseries says the pistachio crop in particular could fall well below earlier projections.
“We’re going to have a very short pistachio crop,” Duarte said.
Pistachio Crop Estimates Decline
Duarte said the pistachio crop had previously been projected at roughly 1.6 billion pounds, but estimates have since dropped to around 1 billion pounds.
“The old adage that small crops get smaller,” Duarte said. “Well, that usually holds true.”
The smaller crop could support higher pistachio prices, but Duarte said reduced production also creates challenges for the industry as demand continues.
“It’s probably at a point where it’s short to where it’s not good for the industry,” he said. “Even though it raises prices, it keeps the pistachio industry from fulfilling the demand that’s out there.”
The lower production outlook comes as California remains a major supplier of pistachios to domestic and international markets. A significant reduction in the crop could affect available supplies throughout the marketing season.
Almond Yields Also Running Lower
Almond growers are seeing similar challenges. Duarte said yields are coming in below expectations across the state, including on orchards that initially appeared to have strong crops.
“We’re coming in shorter and shorter across the state,” Duarte said. “Even guys that look to their trees and thought, wow, I’ve got a good crop this year, are coming in shy.”
Duarte also discussed the performance of the Orizani almond variety, which has performed well in regional variety trials in recent years. While the variety continued to perform strongly this season, yields were still lower than last year.
“We think it did incredibly well again versus other varieties, but it was off about 20% from last year,” Duarte said.
That decline is consistent with what Duarte said many almond growers are experiencing across the industry.
The combination of warm spring weather and lower yields is creating another challenging production year for California tree nut growers. How final harvest numbers compare with current estimates will become clearer as additional orchards are harvested and production data is finalized.
Listen to the full report for more from John Duarte on California’s pistachio and almond crops, variety performance and what lower yields could mean for the industry.