Insights from Steve Malanca of West Valley Hauling
The Ag Meter recently visited Firebaugh, California, where Nick Papagni sat down with Steve Malanca of West Valley Hulling to discuss the state of the 2025 almond harvest. With the season well underway, farmers, processors, and marketers are assessing yields, pricing, and quality—and what these factors mean for California agriculture moving forward.
Yields Falling Short of Early Projections
Earlier this summer, the almond industry braced for a projected 3-billion-pound crop, sparking concerns of oversupply and steep price drops. But by mid-September, harvest reports began to tell a different story.
West Valley Hauling, which started moving almonds around August 10, has been among the first to see results from early-harvested varieties like nonpareils and independents. According to Malanca, yields are consistently down, with many orchards producing:
- 1,200–1,400 pounds per acre in weaker fields
- 1,800–2,200 pounds per acre in average orchards
- Only a handful reaching the 3,000-pound mark typical of strong years
Industry-wide estimates now suggest a 10–22% reduction compared to last year, potentially dropping the final crop size to under 2.4 billion pounds.
Where California Almonds Grow Best
Malanca pointed to the Westlands Water District and surrounding areas in western Fresno County as historically strong production regions. The sandy loam soils, with some areas containing over 20 feet of topsoil, have produced yields 30% higher than those on the Eastside for both row crops and permanent crops.
But despite the land’s potential, water scarcity remains a barrier. “It’s a perfect place to farm if we could get the water,” Malanca noted, highlighting ongoing challenges under SGMA and state water restrictions.
Quality Challenges: Heavier Hulls, Smaller Nuts
While weather conditions during spring and summer were favorable, almond quality has not lived up to expectations.
Each almond consists of three parts:
- Hull
- Shell
- Nut (meat) — the portion growers are paid for, usually 25% of the total weight
This year, nut turnout has declined significantly, with many orchards producing 16–22% turnout instead of the usual 25–28%. Malanca explained that trees seemed to direct more nutrients into heavier hulls rather than plumper nuts, likely a lingering effect of last year’s heat.
The result: smaller kernels, disappointing quality, and reduced grower returns—even as heavier hulls provide added feed for the dairy industry, which buys them for cattle rations.
Market Prices Firming
Despite quality concerns, almond prices are climbing back after an early-season plunge. Prices fell below $2 per pound when 3-billion-pound projections dominated headlines, but with actual yields proving much lower, prices have rebounded to $2.60–$2.70.
Processors report that prices have risen about six cents per week for the past month, with expectations that the market could hit $3 per pound by springtime. Malanca emphasized the importance of higher prices, noting that growers face steep input costs and will need the $3–$3.50 range to remain sustainable.
Carryover Stocks in Balance
California entered the 2025 season with about 500 million pounds of carryover, a balanced and manageable amount. By comparison, just a few years ago the industry struggled under more than 1 billion pounds of excess inventory.
With reduced yields and steady shipments, today’s lower carryover is contributing to stronger price support.
Final Crop Predictions
So, where will the 2025 almond crop finish? Malanca set his “over/under” at 2.375 billion pounds, though he acknowledged some growers believe the number could fall closer to 2.1 billion based on reports of orchards being 10–50% off.
Either way, the early 3-billion-pound forecast has proven dramatically off the mark. “They cost us billions of dollars,” Malanca said bluntly of the inaccurate projection.
“My Job Depends on Ag”: A Movement with Staying Power
Beyond hauling almonds, Malanca is known across California as a founder of the “My Job Depends on Ag” movement. The grassroots campaign, symbolized by its blue decal, has become one of the most recognizable advocacy tools in the San Joaquin Valley and beyond.
Recently, Nutrien Ag Solutions joined the effort by installing a 15-foot-wide decal on a massive storage tank along Highway 33 near Firebaugh. The project, completed by FastSigns Fresno, will even feature on the company’s holiday card this year.
For Malanca, the decal represents unity and awareness: “I wanted it on every billboard on Highway 99 to let people know their food doesn’t come from a grocery store. There are farmers here who need water to grow the safest, best food in the world.”
Investing in the Next Generation
Since its founding, “My Job Depends on Ag” has raised funds for the Center for Land-Based Learning, which delivers agricultural curriculum in schools across California. For eight years, Malanca and co-founder Eric have donated $10,000 annually, funding scholarships for high school seniors entering agriculture programs.
“We’re not in this to make money selling decals,” Malanca explained. “This is about giving back to the kids.”
Supporters can contribute through the Central Valley Community Foundation, which manages donations in the group’s name.
Conclusion: Advocacy and Resilience in California Agriculture
The 2025 almond harvest is shaping up to be smaller than projected, with yields and nut quality falling short of expectations. Yet the downturn is being balanced by firming prices and manageable carryover stocks, giving growers reason for cautious optimism.
At the same time, movements like “My Job Depends on Ag” underscore the human side of farming—families, communities, and future generations who depend on agriculture’s success. As Malanca stressed, California’s farmers need both fair markets and reliable water supplies to continue producing the safest and most abundant food in the world.
In a year defined by both challenges and resilience, the almond industry is once again proving its central role in California’s agricultural identity.