California agriculture is facing one of the most challenging periods in its history. From rising costs and water uncertainty to freight volatility and land-use pressure, every decision feels like a gamble. In a recent in-depth conversation with Nick Foglio of Foglio Commodities, the Ag Meter unpacked the realities farmers, dairymen, and rural communities are living with today — and what the future may hold.
Below is a condensed breakdown of the most important insights from the interview.
Farmland vs. Housing: The Central Valley Is Changing Fast
Foglio described what every Central Valley resident sees daily: houses expanding into farmland at record speed. Areas like Kerman, Clovis, and Highway 41 once dominated by rangeland and cattle operations are turning into subdivisions.
Ironically, he predicts that some westside acreage may eventually return to cattle and rangeland due to irrigation limitations, rising cattle prices, and shifting profitability.
California’s land-use decisions today will shape agriculture for decades.
Generational Farming Under Pressure
As a fourth-generation farmer, Foglio understands the challenge of keeping family operations alive. With land prices inflated — often purchased by outside investors or through 1031 exchanges — young farmers face nearly impossible entry barriers.
According to Foglio, buying land today without a lease-to-own structure is “nearly unattainable.” Cashflow simply doesn’t justify today’s prices.
He believes that future generations must be willing to reinvent, reinvest, and redevelop old crops (like Thompson raisins) into new, profitable plantings. Otherwise, families will ultimately sell.
California Freight: Rates Down, Costs Up
One of the most shocking parts of the interview was Foglio’s discussion of trucking economics:
- Freight that cost $100–$110/ton in 2020 now moves for $60–$70/ton.
- Meanwhile, equipment, insurance, and labor costs have all climbed.
- Operators cutting corners are underbidding responsible carriers, pushing rates artificially low.
Foglio warned that the industry no longer supports reinvestment into new equipment — a major red flag for transportation reliability across agriculture.
Regulatory Pressure and Out-of-State Competition
Farmers aren’t just fighting markets — they’re fighting the state they live in.
High labor costs, water restrictions, environmental regulations, and energy rates push retailers to import cheaper crops from out-of-state or Mexico.
“California kills farming,” Ag Meter remarked. Foglio didn’t disagree.
The Need for Better Leadership in Sacramento
Ag Meter asked Foglio directly whether he has considered political leadership. Foglio didn’t rule it out:
- He is passionate about agriculture, community, faith, and California’s future.
- He believes the state suffers from poor fiscal management and leaders who have “never run profitable businesses.”
- He thinks California can be great again — but only if voter priorities shift, especially in Los Angeles and the Bay Area.
When wildfire hydrants run dry, energy becomes unaffordable, and families choose between fuel and food, Foglio says voters will eventually demand change.
California’s Young People Face a Tough Climb
For recent graduates, the California dream is slipping away. Foglio’s advice:
- Renting is OK — it buys flexibility.
- Management-level talent is in short supply; ambitious young workers can fill this gap.
- Many managers eventually start their own businesses, creating opportunity for those willing to work.
What Will 2026 Look Like? Foglio’s Market Outlook
Foglio expects winter rainfall to heavily determine commodity and silage prices. While last year the Central Valley was flooded with hay from the Northwest, this year that supply hasn’t arrived — yet.
Dairies currently have leverage due to strong feed inventories, but he expects more hay volume to arrive within 60 days.
The challenge? The market has been unstable since 2020, and even major buyers hesitate to hold inventory due to:
- CDI milk price adjustments
- Export/import volatility
- Global commodity swings
In Foglio’s words, “We are price takers, not price makers.”
Imperial Valley: A Market of Its Own
Foglio explained that the Imperial Valley operates independently from the Central Valley due to:
- Saudi-backed export pressure
- Large infrastructure investments
- Hay shipments into Mexico
- Horse stable and retail feed markets
- Early-season fresh hay production
He predicts an early-season price standoff with slightly inflated prices followed by a normal adjustment period.
Almonds: Forget the Panic — Foglio Predicts 2.5–2.75 Billion Pounds
After extreme reaction to a 3-billion-pound production estimate, Foglio told the industry to relax. His prediction: 2.5–2.75 billion pounds.
Almond prices have since rebounded, making the crop attractive again — especially as vineyards are removed across Lodi. But it remains a world-market crop subject to global pricing pressure.
How to Contact Nick Foglio
Nick welcomes calls from farmers, dairymen, and operators throughout the West.
Phone: 559-824-4468
Email: fogliohay@gmail.com
As a fourth-generation farmer and third-generation commodity feed broker, Nick emphasizes one rule:
“You don’t last generation after generation unless you do what you say you’re going to do.”