Forecast Misses the Mark as Almond Crop Reaches 3 Billion Pounds
California almond growers are adjusting to an unexpected increase in crop size this year. According to Sonny Toor, owner of Valley Pride Ag Company, the industry’s early estimates significantly underestimated the actual production levels, leading to new considerations for marketing and export strategy.
Report by Lorrie Boyer for AgNet West:
Crop Estimates Fall Short of Reality
Initial projections for the 2024 almond crop placed total production around 2.75 to 2.8 billion pounds. However, the actual crop now appears closer to 3 billion pounds, catching many in the industry off guard.
“Most folks kind of calculated the crop around 2.75, 2.8, and the crop came at 3 billion pounds,” said Toor. “Added to that is that we had pretty mild weather this summer till now. The harvest might be a little bit late because of that, but we might have a better crop.”
Toor explained that the cool summer weather has delayed harvest timelines slightly, but may ultimately result in higher yields and better crop quality.
Export Markets Play a Pivotal Role
While a larger-than-expected crop could raise concerns about oversupply and pricing pressure, Toor sees potential advantages—especially in global markets. Roughly 70% of U.S. almonds are sold internationally, and the behavior of those export markets plays a critical role in overall price stabilization.
“The way the export market works is that there are a lot of traders. There are a lot of wholesalers, like in the Middle East and China and even in Europe, Turkey, and India,” Toor explained.
He noted that it’s often beneficial to start the season with a larger crop priced competitively. As global buyers profit from early sales, they are incentivized to place repeat orders, supporting demand throughout the season.
“It’s always good to start a big crop at a lower price and then creep up to market things as a fair market for almonds pricing,” said Toor. “It’s not altogether a bad thing.”
Estimate Discrepancy Highlights Need for Caution
The discrepancy between the subjective estimate (2.8 billion pounds) and the objective estimate (3 billion pounds) is raising questions about forecasting methods. Toor suspects the actual figure may lie somewhere between the two, but believes definitive answers won’t emerge until harvest volumes are processed through hulling and shelling operations.
“We think the actual number is somewhere in between,” he said. “But till the time we start seeing the harvest and it goes to the hulling and shelling plants, we won’t really know what is the real story.”
Looking Ahead
As the almond harvest ramps up in California, growers and marketers will continue to monitor actual yield data and market trends closely. For Toor and others in the industry, the focus now shifts to strategic marketing and making the most of what could be a surprisingly strong crop year.