2024 almond market

Inside the 2025 Almond Market: Supply, Pricing, Tariffs, and Global Demand

DanAgri-Business, Almonds, Economy, Exports/Imports, Interview, Irrigation, Labor and Immigration, Legislative, Regulation, Special Reports, Tariffs, Trade, Water

A Conversation with Valley Pride Ag Owner Sunny Toor

2024 almond market
Sunny Toor
Early Uncertainty and a Shifting Crop Estimate

As the 2025 almond season approached, uncertainty hung over the industry. Speaking with Nick from AgMeter, Sunny Toor, owner of Valley Pride Ag, immediately acknowledged the unpredictability growers and marketers faced.

When the USDA’s early three-billion-pound estimate was released, Toor was among those who believed it was too high. As harvest progressed, his outlook proved correct. Current indicators place the crop slightly under 2.7 billion pounds, down from last year’s 2.73 billion.

But Toor emphasized that damage levels—especially in California and Carmel-type varieties—will cut into the net edible product available to sell. Since USDA and the Almond Board calculate crop size based on edible yield, higher damage means a smaller effective supply.

Market Reaction: From Collapse to Recovery

When the initial three-billion-pound estimate dropped in July, the market reacted violently. Prices fell 70–80 cents, triggering panic selling.

But once Nonpareil, which makes up roughly 40% of the crop, began arriving short—especially in Fresno, Merced, and Madera counties—offers tightened and the market rebounded.

Still, prices remain 5–10 cents below late-June levels. After three years of depressed pricing, growers continue to struggle, and Toor stresses the need for a fair, sustainable market.

A compressed buying window adds pressure: Ramadan, Navroz, Chinese New Year, and Diwali all fall early this season. Despite this, Toor expects a firm market through February, when bloom and new-crop expectations begin shaping prices again.

Imports, Organic Pressure, and Domestic Consumption

While imports rarely impact U.S. conventional almond markets, Toor notes that organic almonds could see competition from Spain and Italy. Years of low returns have forced many California organic growers to cut fertility programs, creating an opening.

On the conventional side, however:

“There is no impact,” Toor says. The U.S. does not import conventional almonds at any meaningful level.

Valley Pride Ag continues pushing for stronger domestic consumption, partnering with the Almond Board of California. Toor’s message is clear:

“We are Americans. We grow product here. We want Americans to eat more almonds.”

A strong U.S. dollar remains a challenge for exports, but the smaller crop should support firmer pricing.

Tariffs, Trade Policy, and Almond Access

Global trade remains a defining issue for the almond industry. Toor praised the Trump administration’s negotiations with Europe, India, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam.

Europe recently threatened counter-tariffs but ultimately backed off, keeping demand stable.

China is more complex. Although tariffs jumped from 20% to 40%, much of the product bound for China enters through Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and other nearby channels. Shipments are down, but Toor expects stable underlying demand.

“The almond industry is all behind Trump… we want our government to be successful in negotiating lower tariffs.”

Weather Impacts and Quality Concerns

While spring and summer conditions were excellent, unexpected August and early September rains raised concerns. Toor acknowledged potential damage but credited growers, hullers, and shellers for quick, effective response.

Interestingly, the rain-caused delays slowed crop arrivals, stabilizing prices at a critical moment.

Rethinking the USDA Objective Estimate

Debate continues about the future of USDA’s annual objective estimate. Toor says many industry leaders believe it may eventually be eliminated.

Why?

USDA samplers often lack the day-to-day experience of processors and QA teams. And with a crop of this size—2.6 to 2.7 billion pounds—transparency isn’t the issue:

“You really can’t hide it… any major buyer can come see the orchards, talk to hullers, and get a clear idea of the crop.”

Steady Leadership Through Market Volatility

Nick recalled interviewing Toor during a period of panic, when prices fell below $2/lb and the industry feared a three-billion-pound crop. Toor remained calm.

His advice is unchanged:

Focus on production, stay patient, and remember that tree nut markets are cyclical.

Global Promotion, Travel, and Building Demand

With 70% of the almond crop exported, marketers like Valley Pride Ag, Summit Almonds, and Terranova play a crucial role.

Toor and his team—including industry veterans such as Rich Merritt and Derek Lindemann—travel globally, attending five to six international exhibitions per year. They meet buyers, explain varieties and quality, share weather trends, and build long-term confidence.

“Our survival depends on getting value back to the grower… The story sells—and nuts.”

California’s Global Advantage in Almond Production

When asked whether California still has a competitive edge despite water restrictions, Toor didn’t hesitate.

California’s combination of climate, soil, science, and expertise is unmatched. Australia is expanding, but weather challenges limit consistency. Spain and Portugal also produce almonds, but environmental constraints prevent large-scale growth.

“California is irreplaceable if you talk about a region growing almonds in the world.”

The Water Crisis and Political Obstacles

Despite its natural advantages, California’s best agricultural regions—especially on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley—still struggle with unreliable water access.

Toor emphasized that solving the water crisis must rise above politics. The almond industry supports local economies, global markets, and communities.

“Growers deserve water for their plants… If the grower is not happy, we’re not going to have product for a long time.”

Large volumes of water continue flowing to the ocean, leaving growers frustrated.

Proposition 50 and the Future of Central Valley Agriculture

Asked about the implications of a “No” vote on Proposition 50, Toor said the measure carries major significance for the Central Valley. His message: voters should support policies that protect growers’ livelihoods.

Nick added that agriculture sustains rural towns across the state. If farming weakens, those communities fade. Toor agreed, noting that agriculture is a multi-billion-dollar sector that cannot be taken for granted.

Looking Ahead to the 2026 Crop

After three financially difficult years, many growers have cut back on soil fertility and input programs. To restore production, growers will need to reinvest in:

  • compost
  • nutrients
  • adequate irrigation

Trees need a period of recovery to deliver a strong bloom in 2026.

The balance remains delicate: customers must pay fair prices, and growers must deliver consistent supply.

How Growers Can Reach Valley Pride Ag

Toor encourages growers, customers, and industry members to reach out:

  • Sunny Toor: 559-709-2402
  • James Blocker: 559-676-9146

Both have decades of experience and are committed to supporting the entire almond value chain.

“It is very healthy to have everyone survive.”

A Message of Gratitude to the Almond Industry

Toor thanked growers, handlers, packers, hullers, and shellers for their dedication through difficult seasons. He also thanked customers and AgMeter for highlighting the importance of California farming.

“It helps the government. It helps the state. It helps the people. It helps the health. And it develops the export markets.”

Educating the Next Generation

Valley Pride Ag operates a nonprofit program that brings school children to orchards and processing facilities, helping them understand food production and career paths.

Toor welcomes new ideas and partnerships to expand agricultural education statewide.

Continuing the Almond Story

As the interview closed, AgMeter looked forward to joining Valley Pride Ag at their next farm day—another step in building awareness, demand, and appreciation for California agriculture.

Toor signed off with optimism and commitment to strengthening the almond industry through honesty, teamwork, and global outreach.