Slower Pace of Sugarbeet Harvest Results in Lower 2015/16 Sugar Production and Raised 2016/17 Production
U.S. sugar production is projected to be 9.427 million short tons, raw value (STRV), a 155,000-STRV increase from the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), as raised sugarbeet production prospects outweigh reductions in sugarcane production. Total import projections are increased by 27,000 STRV to 2.678 million MT. Domestic deliveries are reduced 30,000 STRV to 12.205 million STRV due to fewer deliveries projected for food and beverage use. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected to be 1.762 million STRV, which results in the stocks-to-use ratio of 14.4 percent.
Total U.S. sugar production for 2015/16 is estimated to total 8.907 million STRV, a 94,000- STRV decline from the September report. The majority of this change is due to the relatively slow pace of the sugarbeet harvest, which will reallocate beet sugar production from the 2015/16 fiscal year into the 2016/17 fiscal year. Domestic delivery estimates are reduced 30,000 STRV, as a 50,000-STRV reduction in estimated food and beverage deliveries is partially offset by a 20,000-STRV increase in estimated deliveries for the reexport program.
Projected Mexico sugar production in 2016/17 is raised 200,000 metric tons, actual value (MT), to 6.300 MT based on source-reporting by the Foreign Agricultural Service Post in Mexico City. This is the primary contributor to higher projected supplies for 2016/17. As a result, exports are projected to increase 197,000 MT, all of them to countries outside of the United States. The stocks-to-consumption ratio remains unchanged from the previous month at 27.7 percent.
Read the full Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook report from Michael McConnell, coordinator, USDA Economic Research Service.